The nation these days is witnessing worst kind of terrorism in Sindh, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan, with the former ruling coalition partners comprising PPPP, MQM and ANP facing the brunt. Why this surge in terror related activities and to achieve what objective, is the question agitating everybody’s mind.
Some are of the view that TTP denounces democracy and the spate of terrorist attacks is aimed at derailing the democratic process, some feel that they are only targeting liberal parties to benefit the right and far right parties while there are people who smell a conspiracy to postpone the elections.
To me the bigger question is; Can our political leadership rise above their petty agendas to save Pakistan or are we, as a nation, destined to oblivion?
Before we seek to find an answer to above questions, I may reflect on 2008 elections during which militancy was also used as an instrument to influence the outcome, especially in Punjab. It started with Benazir’s assassination and, thereafter, we witnessed an unprecedented surge in terrorist related activities in Punjab and such environments were created that people yearned for peace.
PML-N sold the theme and, rightly or wrongly, convinced the masses that with change of the government, there would be an end to terrorism. Resultantly, they won the elections in Punjab. Thus, firstly, surge in terrorism before elections is not a new phenomenon and, secondly, this surge has a clear-cut objective.
Notwithstanding the fact that TTP takes responsibility for most of the acts of terrorism, the militants can be divided into two main groups - ideologically motivated, mostly funded by our friends in the Middle East and the other group sponsored by CIA (with RAW as their collaborators).
However, irrespective of their leanings, both these groups are pursuing agendas detrimental to Pakistan’s interests - while the ideologically motivated are trying to enforce their brand of Islam, denounce democratic dispensation and carry a soft corner for the far right, at least for the time being, the CIA-RAW sponsored militants are being used to breed instability in Pakistan in pursuit of differing objectives.
Unfortunately, these days both the groups are active in spreading terrorism for different reasons and hence the surge. I will start with the ideological group.
Historically, Saudi Arabia has been funding religious parties and certain militant organisations to enhance their sphere of influence in Pakistan. These religious parties, however, always disappointed them due to their dismal performance in elections. The Saudis got a major breakthrough when, during exile, the Sharifs stayed as their guests and developed a very intimate understanding. They now consider the Sharif family as ‘friends’ who could serve their interests in Pakistan. Zardari’s overt tilt towards Iran has further strengthened this bondage.
Thus, with perceived victory for Sharifs, the ideological group is unlikely to sabotage the elections, though they may facilitate the outcome by discouraging the liberal parties to campaign.
The other external stakeholder is the USA which is supposed to complete draw-down of forces from Afghanistan by the end 2014. Being a critical period, their preference would be the re-instatement of the PPPP-MQM-ANP coalition (the liberal group) which has served their interests well in the last five years. A technocrats’ government with ingress of their sponsored individuals would also be acceptable but, surely, they would not want a dispensation which creates hurdles in execution of their perceived plans for the region. As such, with PPPP trailing behind, postponement of elections and installation of a technocrats’ government with Zardari continuing as President would be their first preference. Failing which, in a post-election scenario, a weak, but friendly, coalition government would be acceptable. Even if that is also not possible, their effort would be to derail the process of smooth transition of power so that a favourable technocrats’ government could be installed.
Thus, the CIA-sponsored terrorists would aim at creating environment whereby, either the elections are postponed or if held, there is no smooth transition of power.
Realising the gravity of the situation, the COAS and the CJ have categorically stated that under no circumstances elections would be postponed. Though PPPP, ANP and MQM leadership still retain the option to sabotage the electoral process by boycotting the elections, it would be a wrong move as not much is lost if they correctly access the future political scenario. This time, ANP is likely to get sympathy vote and with rural Sindh’s vote bank divided, MQM may emerge as a leading party in Sindh. Other than these parties, Tahirul Qadri types may also make attempts to sabotage the elections by staging sit-ins. Such elements must be ruthlessly checked, onus of which lies on the CJ/caretaker government.
Pakistan’s ordeal would not be over even after the elections, as three distinct groups are likely to emerge in the political arena – PML-N and coalition partners, PPPP and coalition partner and PTI. Unfortunately, none of these distinct groups would be in a position to form the government independently. Imran Khan has already announced that he would not join any other party to form the government, leaving the other two groups to join hands, a rare possibility. As such, smooth transition of power may become exceedingly difficult, a situation which can be exploited by parties with vested interests to pursue their agendas.
In the obtaining scenario, unless sense prevails and the political leadership displays the kind of maturity required to take the country out of present quagmire, peace and stability in Pakistan would remain a farfetched dream, the terrorists would keep on flourishing with substantial inflows of money from their foreign sponsors and the establishment would continue to create enough space for itself to call the shots.
Can our political leadership deliver in such testing times, shun their individual agendas and take the country out of brewing turmoil, because if they fail, we as a nation are destined to oblivion.
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