The NA is all set to present a bill for
formulation of Bahawalpur Southern Punjab Province in its current session,
comprising Bahawalpur, Multan, Dera Ghazi Khan Divisions and Bakkar, Mianwali
Districts. Though the move is being ascribed as a political ploy of the ruling
coalition in view of the forthcoming elections, yet possibility of a sinister
design behind the effort cannot be ruled out. It may seem far-fetched to many but
a critical analysis of happenings / events in the last five years would reveal
that demand for division of Punjab by carving out a new province, especially in
its proposed configuration, is part of a larger agenda of some of our top
leaders, as well as, outside powers, especially USA-India Nexus which have long
term interests in the region.
To elaborate, I may briefly highlight the USA-Indian agenda in the
region and its implications for Pakistan. For implementation of their
‘containment of China’ strategy and intent to exploit the mineral/energy
resources of Central Asia, certain pre-requisites must be met; (1) USA must
gain and maintain foothold in Central Asia. For the purpose, it must have a
secure corridor from the Arabian Sea to Central Asia i.e through Pakistan (2) Since,
the USA sees India as a strategic partner in their ‘Grand Design’ for the
region, it must also be given pre-eminence and provided a secure corridor to
Afghanistan and Central Asia (3) By implication, Pakistan must act as a pliant
state and not only expected to provide these corridors but also facilitate
USA-Indian ingress into Central Asia, as demanded.
In pursuance of this agenda, USA has been able to exercise
influence on Pakistan’s policy making by controlling the ruling elite. However,
balkanization of Pakistan still remains an option with USA-India Nexus and Punjab,
Pakistan’s centre of gravity in its present configuration, with nuclear weapons
and strong Army, is considered as an impediment to such designs. As such, from
their perspective Punjab’s strength must be diluted as a first step towards
Pakistan’s balkanization (God forbid), if the situation so demands.
That be the agenda, one is perturbed to
see how in the last few years deliberate attempts have been / are being made by
leadership with vested interests to weaken Punjab. Its manufacturing industry has
been deliberately denied gas and electricity, which is now at the brink of
disaster. The agricultural output is gradually being affected by construction
of new hydroelectric power projects, dams and link canals by India, to which
the present government is turning a blind eye. After creation of proposed
Bahawalpur South Punjab Province, the Indus River will also be delinked from
the remaining Punjab, thus ultimately turning it into a wasteland.
Thus, for those who are contemplating
Pakistan’s balkanization, Punjab would not only be cut to size by its division but
virtually rendered as an impotent entity without industry, depleted
agricultural output and meagre other sources of income. In such a state, it
would be totally dependent on others to survive and, as such, by compulsion act
as a corridor for Indo-Afghan-Central Asia trade via Wagah to generate income –
the foreign agenda will be fulfilled.
The configuration of the proposed
Bahawalpur South Punjab Province is yet another indicator that some of those
pursuing it are also catering for the scenario emanating from Pakistan’s possible
balkanization (God Forbid). It seems that the same has been prepared on the
assumption that with no industrial base, very little natural resources and meagre
sources of income in the shape of agricultural output, it would be difficult
for the proposed Bahawalpur South Punjab Province to survive independently and will
have to depend on Sindh for energy and transit facilities. Thus, economic
dependence, coupled with already existing cultural / political cohesion would
provide strong basis for unification of Sindh and Bahawalpur South Punjab
Province as one entity.
Accordingly, the new province has been
configured to secure Sindh’s life-line by ensuring coverage of entire Indus
River of the present Punjab. Secondly, it is being ensured that the proposed province
links Sindh and KP to serve as a corridor from Arabian Sea / India to
Afghanistan / Central Asia.
With no prominent Saraiki leader in the
limelight, nobody should have a doubt as to who would occupy the driving seat
in such a dispensation. Besides, after unification, their numerical
differential with the Urdu speaking population of urban Sindh would increase
further - Zardari & Co in total control with marginalized MQM.
The
above scenario could be a figment of my imagination and many may not even
consider it within the realm of possibilities but those who are supporting the
idea of a new province in the proposed configuration must analyse the issue
from all perspectives. It is not a matter which may be dealt with and supported
on basis that ‘it sets a precedent to pursue our cause’, or bargained for ‘what
is in it for us’, or adopt wait and see policy contemplating ‘how can we
exploit the situation to our advantage’.
In
my considered view, Punjab’s integrity must be preserved as Pakistan’s centre
of gravity and if at all an odd province is to be carved out for convenience of
masses, it must be done deliberately purely on administrative basis. Any
precedence of creating provinces on ethnic grounds would set into motion many
more such movements detrimental to Pakistan’s integrity.
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