The deadly political impasse (My article published in The NEWS on 17th January 2012 )

Today, Pakistan faces a deadly political impasse with grave ramifications. The players include the government, opposition, judiciary, the Armed Forces, media, the masses and finally the foreign hand. To understand the nature of imbroglio and solution thereof, we need to be clear where each stakeholder stands today, what it is striving for and what must be done to sail through.

Starting with PPP led coalition government, which includes PPP, ANP, PML (Q) and MQM; The PPP, though enjoys strong support from USA because of the services rendered, has failed on the domestic front in every sphere of governance, involvement in corruption, destroying institutions, perpetual defiance to judiciary, stand-off with the Army, a recent development, and bringing the country to the brink of economic disaster, and, as such, has nothing to go to the masses and now vying to become political martyrs for gaining sympathy vote. And since martyrdom is not in sight, their frustration is growing with each passing day. Their only option is to take advantage of the little time they are left with, coupled with the short memory of the masses, and at least try to give a semblance of governance, besides curbing the tendency to deal politically the judicial matters confronted by the leadership. ANP, if ‘Railways’ is any gauge of their performance, has no option but to go along with PPP. PML (Q), in either case is facing extinction, and as such, should merge with either PPP or PML (N), using its well known art of ‘dealings’. In my reckoning they would be better of aligning with their parent party, if nothing else, for this country’s sake. The MQM, however, faces a dilemma - the day PPP is strong enough, MQM will be the likely target and, I am sure, their leadership knows it. As such, their survival is to stand on high moral grounds and must delink themselves from Government’s misdeeds.

The second stakeholder is the opposition; which is symbolized by Nawaz Sharif who, besides being a man of less than average intelligence, is suffering from a kind of ‘military takeover phobia’. These weaknesses have been successfully exploited by President Zardari and he, till recently, played the role of a friendly opposition. Still undecided, the opposition needs to get its act together. It’s now or never situation and time for redemption. En-masse resignations from the assemblies may save the day for them and for the country.   

The third stakeholder, Judiciary; though it has given some landmark decisions, yet the apex court is gradually losing moral ascendency and faith in the ‘revamped’ judiciary is dwindling because of, firstly, its inability to rein-in those bent upon maligning its image and, secondly, inability to get its decisions implemented on some important cases, for fear of political fall-out. Even the six options given in the NRO implementation case are a manifestation of expediency, as the infamous ‘law of necessity’. They have little time left to assert. 

The Armed Forces; This institution, till a few years back, could be ascribed as the center of gravity of this country - the status undergoing dilution with each passing day. The nation at large, which has invested and continues to invest in the Armed Forces, has great expectations from this institution. As such, despite successful operations in Swat and South Wazirstan, the masses were jolted by the intelligence, operational and security related failures as manifested in terrorist attacks on GHQ, Parade Lane, Mehran Base and, most significant, the 2nd May incident, having serious ramifications for the country. Besides, as the ensuing developments indicate, the strategy supposedly being followed by the military vis-à-vis USA has back fired and the Armed Forces have failed (at least in perception) in what the media calls ‘performance audit’. Sensing an opportunity, the ruling elite, with support of USA against some commitments, is trying to undermine the Army as an institution and, thus, a stand-off. The military leadership must continue to display restraint against ongoing provocations, perform on ground to thwart threats to Pakistan’s security, their primary responsibility, and concentrate on their professional pursuits – their only option to emerge victorious from the impasse. 

The fifth stake holder, the media; Till recently, the media played a very constructive role in highlighting the shortfalls in governance and institutional failures and acted as an independent and impartial monitoring body. However, the power it has started to generate for affecting changes, has also made it vulnerable to ‘enticements and coercion’, resulting into affiliations and lack of objectivity, though still not very pronounced. To those who have certain ‘motivation’ for taking sides, I would only request that they must shun pursuit of personal gains and play an impartial role as the stakes are too high – on media the future course of this country depends. 

Sixth stake holder, the masses; though in democracies, the people are masters of their destiny, in Pakistan, they have abdicated this privilege by remaining indifferent, and, as such, do not matter in the scheme of things. They must begin to assert and strive to break the shackles of subservience, or they would remain condemned to oblivion, as hither to.

Finally, the foreign hand, USA; for achievement of their long term objectives in the region, it is imperative that Pakistan must be ruled by a pliant leadership which must remain subservient to their demands. Contrary to previous practice of relying on military dictators, this time, they are betting on the civilian political leadership for the purpose and would go all out to protect the interests of their ‘assets’. However, since their strategy vis-à-vis Pakistan hinges on a ‘sold out’ leadership, it would mean more extremism and would ultimately be counter-productive. They must play a positive role in strengthening democracy to ensure a stable Pakistan, which is in everybody’s interest.

Colonization of a new kind (My article published in the NEWS on 4th January 2012)

Pakistan’s geo-strategic location as gate-way to Central Asia and its emergence as a nuclear armed ‘Islamic state’, have made it extremely vulnerable to power games of many countries with the USA as the major player.  Though apparently they attacked Afghanistan to topple the Taliban Government and bring perpetrators of 9/11 to justice, in my view, they, in any case, would have attacked Afghanistan on one pretext or another to gain and maintain foot-hold in Central Asia, which is considered imperative for implementation of their ‘containment of China’ strategy. And, since, the USA sees India as a strategic partner in their ‘Grand Design’ for the region, by implication Pakistan must be brought to a level of a pliant state and de-fanged as a nuclear irritant to India.

To achieve the above mentioned objectives vis-à-vis Pakistan, the USA Administration could exercise three options – (1) The ‘military option’ (2) ‘Erstwhile USSR model’, whereby, USSR was internally destabilized, made economically unviable and then a deal was struck for dismantling of its nuclear warheads deployed outside the Russian Federation (3) The ‘indirect control model’ i.e controlling a country by controlling its leadership.

The military option could have grave ramifications and, as such, discarded by US policy makers, unless absolutely warranted. Former US President Bush, under the influence of anti-Pakistan lobbies, tried to implement the ‘Erstwhile USSR model’ in Pakistan, wherein, CIA-RAW Nexus found commonality of interests with a group of Taliban to breed instability. Pakistan responded by double-dealing with them and as it became clear by end 2006 that the strategy was bound to failure, the US policy makers decided to exercise the third option, ‘to achieve control on Pakistan by controlling Pakistan’s leadership, through incentives and coercion’. This strategy is not only followed in most of the Middle Eastern countries but the past history of most of the areas that now comprise Pakistan also lent credence to the adopted strategy which reveals that through centuries, invaders from the North (Afghanistan / Central Asia) and the British ruled the area in connivance with influential locals, who in return for certain ‘incentives’ owed allegiance to these foreign rulers. The masses also generally displayed subservience to these so-called ruling elites, ‘imposed’ on them by ‘outsiders’.

Though USA Administrations had always felt comfortable to deal with military dictators, yet historically, they, at a certain stage tended to show defiance. As such, when in 2006 Musharraf was found reluctant to dance to their tune, it was principally decided to invest in the political leadership. Benazir, while in exile, played a major role in reinforcing this thought process. The strategy by USA vis-à-vis Pakistan, thus, envisaged; (1) Pakistani leaders willing to support the US agenda in the region would be ‘assisted’ to reach the corridors of power (2)  Ingress in the major institutions would be achieved by cultivating ‘local assets’, thereby, establishing a network to ‘elevate and protect’ those who comply and ‘marginalize’ those not falling in line (3) Preferably, with passage of time, alternate leadership would be prepared to ensure friendly change, if situation so demands (4)  Rampant corruption, economic dependence on USA and negative internal dynamics of Pakistan would serve as tools to support the strategy.

Musharraf was, thus, ‘persuaded’ to enter into a deal with Benazir, NRO was promulgated, Benazir returned, changed her stance being a true leader, became a victim in a suicide attack and Zardari provided the required replacement.      

While NRO brokered by the USA had paved the way for return and assent to power of ‘local assets’ willing to play their game, what could be expected of them in return; firstly, to support the USA’s ‘Grand Design’ in the region as mentioned above and, secondly, create internal environment for successful application of USA’s strategy of converting Pakistan into a pliant state in the long term. In my view, following undertakings by the ‘assets’, implanted through NRO or already emplaced, would ensure  achievement of these objectives; (1) Crippling of Pakistan’s economy to a level, whereby, it remains dependent on USA (2) Sabotage of Pakistan’s nuclear program through indirect methods (3) Undermining of the Army’s status as a center of gravity, establishing control over them, and curtailing their ability to breed ‘Strategic Defiance’ to the USA’s ‘Grand Design’ in the region (4) Assisting in ingress of CIA ‘assets’ in major institutions to support the ‘implanted’ leadership. (Imprints of this ‘ingress’ are already visible if one critically observes recent happenings e.g in the memogate scandal, a ‘rescue apparatus’ has been immediately energized and set into motion to protect those looking after US interests) (5) Accepting India’s pre-eminence and undertaking measures to ensure that the Pakistani nation reconciles with the idea (6) Supporting USA’s war effort in the region.      

Though these ‘assets’ have managed to deliver to their ‘sponsors’ on different fronts, yet it failed to achieve any progress with regard to ‘control’ over the Armed Forces. 2 May 2011, provided a unique opportunity to the ruling elite to gain ‘control’ over the Army as its image hit the rock bottom. They could even have acted against the Army leadership by virtue of the authority vested in them by the constitution but lacked the courage to do so without guaranteed US support and, hence, the memo was initiated, which is a reality beyond doubt. Though the Government’s desire to achieve ‘control’ over the military establishment is a legitimate one, yet seeking help of a foreign power for the purpose and, most importantly, the offers made, thereof, in return are serious issues impinging on our sovereignty. 

From the above perspective, the memogate investigations assume greater importance as the outcome would ultimately set direction for the nation. If the justice prevails, the nation may hope to break the shackles of slavery being woven around it and in case the CIA’s fully emplaced ‘rescue apparatus’ is able to save the perpetrators of ‘memogate’, the nation would be destined to enslavement as in the past, this time to be controlled directly or indirectly by the USA, through their implanted ‘assets’ – colonization of a new kind.