Today, the Pakistani nation stands
confused and divided on the issue of dealing with the Taliban. The PM, despite
a sizable divergence of views in his party, is determined to pursue the peace
process through negotiations and most of the right wing religious parties, as
well as, PTI are supporting his stance, while a reasonable segment of society,
including liberal parties, are skeptical about the out-come. In their view, an
all out military operation must be undertaken to quell Talibanization once and
for all. Whatever modalities are adopted by the Government to deal with the
Taliban, fact is that the latter have gained pre-eminence and all stake-holders
are vying to dance with them fof pursuance of their agendas/strategies/objectives.
In given environment, Pakistan needs
to adopt a deliberate and well thought-out strategy vis-à-vis Taliban,
preferably based on consensus. Such a strategy must be based on; (1) Pakistan’s
internal dynamics (2) A deep insight into the developing regional scenario (3)
Interests, aims and objectives of various stake-holders and how their pursuance
would impact Pakistan’s security in short and long terms.
USA:
USA’s objective of invading Afghanistan, all along, has been to gain
and maintain foot-hold in Central Asia, an imperative to pursue their
‘containment of China’ strategy. Crimean crisis has added another
dimension as some terming it as start of Cold War II. Thus, under all
circumstances, they would continue to maintain their bases in Afghanistan and,
by implication, require support of Islamic militants for a stable ‘pliant’
government in Afghanistan, as well as, to serve them as proxies in the
long-term. That actually is the reason USA is pushing Pakistan since long to
undertake operation in NWA so that they could then strike a better bargain with
the depleted Haqqanis/Taliban.
Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia’s intent
to use Taliban as a counter-weight to Iranian influence is well known. For the
purpose, unlike USA, they would need a strong Taliban entity to serve their
objectives and hence, would prefer a negotiated settlement between Pakistan
Government and TTP to obviate the chances of any military operation that may
weaken Afghan Taliban’s war potential.
Iran: Though, there is a divergence
of strategic and economic interests of Iran and Pakistan as gate-way to Central
Asia and Iran played a major role in breeding instability in Afghanistan in the
nineties to deny Pakistan access into Central Asian states, yet Pakistan must
continue to seek better relations with Iran and under no circumstances the be
seen as taking sides in the ongoing conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Doing so would be suicidal with grave ramifications.
Afghan Taliban: Afghan Taliban have
valiantly fought for over twelve years to push the US/NATO forces out of
Afghanistan in the hope to regain power which, in their perception, is their
legitimate right. Sensing a kill due to planned draw-down of foreign forces
from Afghanistan, they would not want any military confrontation with Pakistani
forces and, therefore, must be exerting pressure on TTP for securing a
negotiated settlement with the Pakistan Government, at least for the time being.
India: All along, India has been
playing a dirty game in Afghanistan at the expense of US/NATO forces. While the
latter were incurring heavy losses in terms of soldiers’ lives and hundreds of
billions of US$, Indian RAW remained busy in making in-roads into Afghanistan
to undertake covert operations to destabilize Pakistan. Unfortunately, CIA has
also been/is collaborating with RAW in certain anti-Pakistan activities, for
which a few factions of militants are also being used as proxies. Thus, we may
not rule out possibility of attempts by them at de-railing the ongoing peace
talks through a major terrorist incident. Failure of peace talks and launching
of operation as a consequence by Pakistan military would serve their interests
as certain militant factions may fall into their trap to be used against
Pakistan, as hitherto.
TTP: Under the circumstances, TTP has
little choice but to opt for negotiated settlement with Pakistan Government or
face ‘annoyance’ of Afghan Taliban and Saudi Arabia, as well as, risk of being
labeled as a proxy serving US interests.
Pakistani masses: Tthrough the
centuries, warriors from the North (Afghanistan and beyond) have been invading
the fertile lands of the Punjab and further south on one pretext or another,
mostly using religion as an instrument, ruled and ultimately merged with the
society. Talibanization is another manifestation of the same phenomenon, the people are either staying indifferent or inadvertently becoming
hostage to their ideology and would ultimately be inclined to dance with them,
as always. The leadership is no different and hence the confusion on how to
deal with TTP.
Pakistan Government: Notwithstanding,
Nawaz Sharif’s ideological leanings, desire to become Amir-ul Momnin, faulty
assumption that he would be able to use the wooed Taliban as a counter-weight
to Army and ‘understanding’ with Saudi Royal family, Pakistan Government also has
little space but to seek a negotiated settlement with TTP. The only factor to
be kept in mind is that long-term durable peace with TTP can only be achieved
by negotiating with them from a point of strength. As such, the Government must
be prepared to undertake surgical strikes/covert operations to thwart attempts
by anti-talk elements to derail the peace process or by TTP to exert pressure
on the Government through terrorist activities for acceptance of their unjust
demands.
Finally, any negotiated settlement
would be short-lived if the Government does not have a well laid-out policy on
how to absorb militants in the society, how to deal with the situation if they
start to spread their brand of ideology through coercion and start targeting
people of other sects.
Apparently, Government has little
clue of how to tackle such post ‘negotiated settlement’ matters and it is on
these grounds that people are skeptical about the ultimate out-come of
Government’s strategy of dancing with the Taliban.
