Damage done (My article published in THE NEWS on 19 May 2012)

At last, despite many hiccups, the Judicial commission assigned to probe the memo-gate is about to finalize its findings. While the outcome of the investigations are not known, apparently, as a consequence to the probe, nobody would be tried for treason, endangering with country’s nuclear arsenal and for acts inimical to country’s sovereignty or conspiracy to undermine Pakistan’s security establishment. Now, at this stage, it is of little consequence whether Haqqani acted alone or was able to convince his Pakistani ‘boss’ for undertaking such a venture, how Mansoor Ijaz was involved and worked on whose behest, as the objectives set by the perpetrators stand achieved and Haqqani is in USA, free and probably living a luxurious life – an American ‘Hero’.

It is, however, important to understand as to what actually happened and in what way the memo-gate has damaged Pakistan. To ascertain, we must first be clear about the objectives of different stake-holders.                   

The USA; There is nothing more its Administration would want but to convert Pakistan into a pliant state, see her nuclear program rolled-back and the government must accede to their dictates for fulfilment of long-term agenda in the region. It finds Pakistan’s military establishment a hurdle in achievement of these objectives and, therefore, would do anything to undermine them. The ‘memo’, irrespective of who prepared it, offered just that in a platter. Logically, the USA Administration should have grabbed the opportunity as it was presented. However, they did not and waited for the right time to strike in pursuance of a bigger agenda.     

The Government; anybody who is familiar with Pakistan’s polity understands that each democratic government must nurture the desire to rein-in the military establishment. Though this legitimate desire can easily be fulfilled by achieving moral ascendancy through performance in accordance with the given mandate, yet from day one, the present government is striving to develop a commonality of interests with the USA Administration to achieve this objective. President Zardari’s initial statements inimical to Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence, attempts to place ISI under Ministry of Interior, the offer of sending DG ISI to India after Mumbai attacks, contents of Kerry-Lugar Bill (in a way similar to the ‘memo’), attempts to permit Indian ingress into Afghanistan through Afghan Transit Trade, grant of MFN status to India, and so on, are manifestations of government’s desire to align itself with USA’s line of thinking.

The military establishment; since Pakistan’s inception, the military establishment has been playing a role, directly or indirectly, in the formulation of important policies, strategies thereof, and enjoyed USA’s support. For the last few years, however, the USA finds the military establishment as an impediment to their agenda in the region and inclined to deal with the civilian leadership, whom they find more ‘responsive’. Amid such mistrust between the US leadership and military establishment, the 2^nd May 2011 incident served as the last nail in the coffin. Coupled with that, because of its perceived failure on ground, the military establishment started to lose relevance at a fast pace, making way for the other power centres, especially the government, to fill the vacuum and assert. 

Thus, while an understanding already existed between the PPP leadership and their US counterparts to undermine Pakistan’s military establishment, 2^nd May incident provided an opportunity to go for the kill. The PPP leadership, however, to USA’s dismay, continued to show reluctance to comply and take drastic steps against the military establishment, fearing it may backfire as happened in 1999.

Hence, the ‘memo’, which apparently sought US guarantees against the military establishment, but, as the indicators suggest, was actually meant to trap President Zardari into submission. Known for his slippery character, full of ambition and ‘intellect’, Haqqani probably played a double game on behalf of the Americans to achieve that.

The contents of the ‘memo’ were purposely leaked out to put Zardari under pressure and as he was substantially cornered, especially after Admiral Mike Mullen’s admission about the existence of ‘memo’, the Americans jumped in to get the best deal. While it is clear that Zardari was assured ‘protection’ and support in memo-gate investigations, as evident from his body language after return from ‘treatment’ abroad, what has been promised in return is anybody’s guess.

As a result of the ‘understanding’ reached, the nation witnessed complete complicity between USA and Pakistan Government in memo-gate probe. Admiral Mike Mullen completely downplayed the ‘memo’ as something insignificant, notwithstanding the fact that his well known parting testimony to the Congressional Committee was based on the ‘admissions’ contained in the ‘memo’.

Then, James Jones submitted a self-contradictory affidavit in support of Haqqani ( for details read my comments published in the NEWS POST on 22 December 2011) and later declined to face the commission as he knew that he could never stand his ground. Besides, US senators, media and, most significantly, Bruce Riedel, a former CIA analyst, advisor to four US Presidents and a known Jewish lobbyist, have been very active in Haqqani’s support. The State Department went out of the way and adopted a threatening posture, even causing aspersions on Pakistan’s Judiciary, against all norms of diplomacy. In nutshell, the USA Administration came out strongly to back the Pakistan Government, especially Haqqani, on ‘memo-gate’. How the ‘Pakistani rescue apparatus’ was set into motion to save Haqqani, and the government, is in itself a long story to dwell upon.

Why this complicity and in return for what, is a question which must haunt every patriot Pakistani, especially the military establishment. One thing is, however, clear – the Americans now enjoy a much greater grip on our ruling hierarchy. Thus to me, memo-gate has already done the damage.

A hidden agenda (My article published in the NEWS on 1st May)

Before the dismemberment of Pakistan in 1971, a few paid heed to those warning of impending disaster, on 15^th December 1971 the nation thought, and made to believe, that everything was fine and under control, on 16^th more than half the country was gone and on 17^th majority of us behaved if nothing serious had happened. This is the dilemma of our nation which chooses to stay in oblivion. Should this remain the case? I do not think so and, as such, would not hesitate to dilate on the issue of proposed Saraiki Province, covering an angle which may seem farfetched to many of us.   

After completing more than four years of their prescribed five years tenure, suddenly the PPP leadership has raised the ante on the proposed Saraiki Province on grounds that the people there are facing deprivation, notwithstanding the fact that in this period the PM has spent hundreds of billions of rupees in just Multan, his city, and not on alleviating the misgivings of the Saraiki people. What then is the hidden agenda behind this demand?

Though apparently the move is a political ploy in view of the forthcoming elections, yet a critical analysis of past events would reveal that demand for a Saraiki Province is continuation of a systematic process to break and weaken the present Punjab Province as part of a larger agenda of our ruling ‘DUO’, as well as, of those outside powers, which are even envisaging Pakistan’s balkanization. Unfortunately some of the other political parties, including Punjab based, are conniving with the PPP in pursuance of this agenda with little understanding of its implications.

The process of weakening Punjab started by denying it gas and electricity, essentially required to run its industry, which is now at brink of disaster.

Secondly, Government’s lack of meaningful response to construction of new hydroelectric power projects, dams and proposed link canals by India on the rivers feeding Punjab would ultimately deny it the required water resources, seriously affecting its agricultural output also. After creation of proposed Saraiki Province, especially if it is extended up to Mianwali in the North, the Indus River will also be delinked from the remaining Punjab. 

Thirdly, Punjab may one day act as a conduit of Indo-Afghan trade via Wagah, a source of income. That also is being taken care of by planned opening of Sulaimanke route which would probably be linked with the Indus Highway through the proposed Saraiki Province to KP, Afghanistan and beyond.

Punjab would, thus, virtually be rendered as an impotent entity without industry, depleted agricultural output and meagre other sources of income, totally dependent on others to survive –  A price Punjab must pay for having a sold out leadership, always seeking personal interests. Undermining of Punjab would also fulfil the agenda of those foreign powers who feel that even after Pakistan’s balkanization, the Punjab, in its present configuration, with nuclear weapons and strong Army, would remain a threat to their interests.

Will undermining Punjab and creation of Saraiki Province complete the agenda? I do not think so. Though farfetched, we must not rule out the possibility that the duo, the President and PM, may even be thinking in terms of unification of present Sindh and proposed Saraiki Province in any future dispensation. Following lent credence to such a thought process;   

Politically, the people of Saraiki speaking areas are more akin to the rural Sindh – feudalism, monopoly of land owning and subservient masses. It would be easier for the PPP to buy off important families or coerce them into submission (as was done in Bhutto era through land reforms). Culturally also, people of most of the areas included in the proposed Saraiki Province are closer to rural Sindh than Central Punjab.

With no industrial base and very little natural resources, the proposed Saraiki Province will have meagre sources of income in the shape of agricultural output and will be dependent on other provinces, especially Sindh, for their basic needs. Having control over the Indus River, the Saraiki Province will gain importance for Sindh which, in return, can provide energy and transit facilities.

Thus, cultural cohesion and economic dependence would provide strong basis for future unification of Sindh and Saraiki Province as one entity. With Saraiki leaders like Gilani, who believe in loyalty to ‘Masters’ and even their graves, rather than the motherland, nobody should have a doubt as to who would occupy the driving seat. The numerical differential between the Urdu speaking of urban Sindh and rural Sindh, along with Saraiki areas, would enhance further - Zardari & Co in total control with marginalized MQM.

The above may seem a figment of imagination, however, a possibility. If it materializes, Zardari may be regarded by nationalist Sindhis as the ‘Quaid’ who revived greater Sindh, but in history he would surely go down as “Pakistan’s Gorbachev”.  To the contrary, he can become a true leader of over 180 million Pakistanis by delivering as per aspirations of the people, rather than opting for dirty politics. Choice still remains with him.

For the other mainstream political parties, there is no other option left but to shun their differences, rise above their self seeking agendas and get united to thwart the designs of those bent upon undermining Pakistan.