After elections 2013, time to move on (My article published in THE NEWS dated 17 May 2013)

 

ISLAMABAD: Notwithstanding rigging charges and sit-ins here and there, Elections 2013 are over and the Pakistani nation has all the reasons to rejoice on two counts; firstly, the people defied threats by terrorists and came out in large numbers to vote and, secondly, the results indicate establishment of a stable government in the centre, defying most of the analysts who were of the opinion that there would be a split mandate, hung parliament and weak government, vulnerable to intrigues by different stake-holders.

Though leaders of the main political parties have accepted the mandate and are all set to form governments in the centre and provinces, yet barring PML(N) most are alleging rigging in elections and making demands which might sabotage the entire electoral process. Imran Khan has already demanded verification of thumb impressions in certain NA seats by Nadra. If carried out, given our political culture, discrepancies would be there and results may lead to a chain reaction, most demanding verification of thumb impressions in their respective constituencies. Such an undertaking would surely undermine the entire electoral process, letting down the masses and diminishing their hope in democracy.

Can we afford time to go through the ordeal and derail the process, especially when regional and international environment favour a stable Pakistan, is a question which our political leadership must ponder, especially when no substantial change in the outcome of elections is anticipated, if we survive the undertaking.

We all know that ISAF / US forces are to complete draw-down of their forces from Afghanistan by end year 2014 and most of their weapons / equipment worth billions of US dollars would have to pass through Pakistan. For its smooth passage, two pre-requisites must be ensured; Firstly, a stable Pakistan and, secondly, governments in the centre and KPK by political parties who could interact with Taliban for causing least interruptions in the move back. As such, for the international community, especially USA, the out-come of elections is a dream come true with NS in the centre and PTI in KPK, both for whom Taliban have soft corner. In this backdrop, we are likely to see substantial international support to keep Pakistan stable, at least till end year 2014, and a patient hearing by USA to demands, such as, not to use drones unilaterally.

Thus, despite the fact that in the last five years the PPP-lead coalition has played havoc with the country and put economy in shambles, NS government is likely to get a head-start due to regional environment and international support, thereof. Though he may have to take certain hard decisions to put economy back on track and, on the political front, deal with Zardari, playing the ‘Sindh Card’ and majority in Senate to retain presidency, yet support of international players would be readily forthcoming.

With the establishment, NS will have to tread a cautious line, absorb what all is happening on Western Front and then take decisions as head of executive and not with a mind-set of an opposition leader. He must bear in mind that Pakistanis have paid a very heavy price in pursuit of a strategy, whereby, the foreign forces are now withdrawing from Afghanistan, with India nowhere to be seen in the end-game. He must also remain cognizant of the fact that 2nd tier US leadership and think tank are openly blaming Pakistan Army / ISI for their defeat in Afghanistan. Such a stance has repercussions for Pakistan, though there is not much they can do at a stage when they require Pakistan Army’s support to ensure smooth draw down of their forces.

As for PPP, they lost miserably not because the Taliban did not let them campaign but because of their poor performance. They failed to deliver and suffered, as simple as that. It’s time for them to carry out appraisal of their performance in last five years, take corrective measures and perform in Sindh. The analogy that ‘elections are won by money and not performance’ has backfired now and will in future. If they must re-enter Pakistan’s political arena, performance would be the key.

Though PTI could have secured a few more seats, in my view, the position it has attained is a blessing in disguise. Firstly, some of Imran Khan’s policies are unrealistic and during campaigning, he had made promises as per public perceptions which he could not possibly fulfil at the central government level e.g withdrawal of forces from FATA and Baluchistan, shooting down of drones, education policy, election of SHO by villagers, etc. He had declared that he would not ally with anybody to form the government but already we see that he is making a coalition government, conceding important ministries, such as education and finance, to JI. So, in fact, IK has been saved from a lot of embarrassment getting fewer seats than his expectations. Now he will get time to mature his policies in KPK and may be next few years he is in a position to form government in the centre.

Thus, Elections 2013 is best news for everybody, barring elements who want to destabilize the country and do not see democracy taking its roots. The regional and international environments also present a unique opportunity to our political leadership to take the country out of the present predicament. It’s time for them to display political maturity and grasp the given opportunities, instead of wasting further time in sit-ins / elections related issues, which must be left for the ECP to deal. It’s time to move on.

Can Pakistan rise to face the politics of terror? (My piece published in THE NEWS dated 4th May 2013)

The nation these days is witnessing worst kind of terrorism in Sindh, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan, with the former ruling coalition partners comprising PPPP, MQM and ANP facing the brunt. Why this surge in terror related activities and to achieve what objective, is the question agitating everybody’s mind.

Some are of the view that TTP denounces democracy and the spate of terrorist attacks is aimed at derailing the democratic process, some feel that they are only targeting liberal parties to benefit the right and far right parties while there are people who smell a conspiracy to postpone the elections.

To me the bigger question is; Can our political leadership rise above their petty agendas to save Pakistan or are we, as a nation, destined to oblivion?

Before we seek to find an answer to above questions, I may reflect on 2008 elections during which militancy was also used as an instrument to influence the outcome, especially in Punjab. It started with Benazir’s assassination and, thereafter, we witnessed an unprecedented surge in terrorist related activities in Punjab and such environments were created that people yearned for peace.

PML-N sold the theme and, rightly or wrongly, convinced the masses that with change of the government, there would be an end to terrorism. Resultantly, they won the elections in Punjab. Thus, firstly, surge in terrorism before elections is not a new phenomenon and, secondly, this surge has a clear-cut objective.

Notwithstanding the fact that TTP takes responsibility for most of the acts of terrorism, the militants can be divided into two main groups - ideologically motivated, mostly funded by our friends in the Middle East and the other group sponsored by CIA (with RAW as their collaborators).

However, irrespective of their leanings, both these groups are pursuing agendas detrimental to Pakistan’s interests - while the ideologically motivated are trying to enforce their brand of Islam, denounce democratic dispensation and carry a soft corner for the far right, at least for the time being, the CIA-RAW sponsored militants are being used to breed instability in Pakistan in pursuit of differing objectives.

Unfortunately, these days both the groups are active in spreading terrorism for different reasons and hence the surge. I will start with the ideological group.

Historically, Saudi Arabia has been funding religious parties and certain militant organisations to enhance their sphere of influence in Pakistan. These religious parties, however, always disappointed them due to their dismal performance in elections. The Saudis got a major breakthrough when, during exile, the Sharifs stayed as their guests and developed a very intimate understanding. They now consider the Sharif family as ‘friends’ who could serve their interests in Pakistan. Zardari’s overt tilt towards Iran has further strengthened this bondage.

Thus, with perceived victory for Sharifs, the ideological group is unlikely to sabotage the elections, though they may facilitate the outcome by discouraging the liberal parties to campaign.

The other external stakeholder is the USA which is supposed to complete draw-down of forces from Afghanistan by the end 2014. Being a critical period, their preference would be the re-instatement of the PPPP-MQM-ANP coalition (the liberal group) which has served their interests well in the last five years. A technocrats’ government with ingress of their sponsored individuals would also be acceptable but, surely, they would not want a dispensation which creates hurdles in execution of their perceived plans for the region. As such, with PPPP trailing behind, postponement of elections and installation of a technocrats’ government with Zardari continuing as President would be their first preference. Failing which, in a post-election scenario, a weak, but friendly, coalition government would be acceptable. Even if that is also not possible, their effort would be to derail the process of smooth transition of power so that a favourable technocrats’ government could be installed.

Thus, the CIA-sponsored terrorists would aim at creating environment whereby, either the elections are postponed or if held, there is no smooth transition of power.

Realising the gravity of the situation, the COAS and the CJ have categorically stated that under no circumstances elections would be postponed. Though PPPP, ANP and MQM leadership still retain the option to sabotage the electoral process by boycotting the elections, it would be a wrong move as not much is lost if they correctly access the future political scenario. This time, ANP is likely to get sympathy vote and with rural Sindh’s vote bank divided, MQM may emerge as a leading party in Sindh. Other than these parties, Tahirul Qadri types may also make attempts to sabotage the elections by staging sit-ins. Such elements must be ruthlessly checked, onus of which lies on the CJ/caretaker government.

Pakistan’s ordeal would not be over even after the elections, as three distinct groups are likely to emerge in the political arena – PML-N and coalition partners, PPPP and coalition partner and PTI. Unfortunately, none of these distinct groups would be in a position to form the government independently. Imran Khan has already announced that he would not join any other party to form the government, leaving the other two groups to join hands, a rare possibility. As such, smooth transition of power may become exceedingly difficult, a situation which can be exploited by parties with vested interests to pursue their agendas.

In the obtaining scenario, unless sense prevails and the political leadership displays the kind of maturity required to take the country out of present quagmire, peace and stability in Pakistan would remain a farfetched dream, the terrorists would keep on flourishing with substantial inflows of money from their foreign sponsors and the establishment would continue to create enough space for itself to call the shots.

Can our political leadership deliver in such testing times, shun their individual agendas and take the country out of brewing turmoil, because if they fail, we as a nation are destined to oblivion.