At last, despite many hiccups, the Judicial
commission assigned to probe the memo-gate is about to finalize its findings.
While the outcome of the investigations are not known, apparently, as a
consequence to the probe, nobody would be
tried for treason, endangering with country’s nuclear arsenal and for acts
inimical to country’s sovereignty or conspiracy to undermine Pakistan’s
security establishment. Now, at this stage, it is of little consequence whether Haqqani acted
alone or was able to convince his Pakistani ‘boss’ for undertaking such a venture,
how Mansoor Ijaz was involved and worked on whose behest, as the objectives set
by the perpetrators stand achieved and Haqqani is in USA, free and probably
living a luxurious life – an American ‘Hero’.
It
is, however, important to understand as to what actually happened and in what
way the memo-gate has damaged Pakistan. To ascertain, we must first be clear
about the objectives of different stake-holders.
The USA; There is nothing more its Administration
would want but to convert Pakistan into a pliant state, see her nuclear program
rolled-back and the government must accede to their dictates for fulfilment of
long-term agenda in the region. It finds Pakistan’s military establishment a
hurdle in achievement of these objectives and, therefore, would do anything to
undermine them. The ‘memo’, irrespective of who prepared it, offered just that
in a platter. Logically, the USA Administration should have grabbed the
opportunity as it was presented. However, they did not and waited for the right
time to strike in pursuance of a bigger agenda.
The Government; anybody who is familiar with
Pakistan’s polity understands that each democratic government must nurture the
desire to rein-in the military establishment. Though this legitimate desire can
easily be fulfilled by achieving moral ascendancy through performance in
accordance with the given mandate, yet from day one, the present government is
striving to develop a commonality of interests with the USA Administration to
achieve this objective. President Zardari’s initial statements inimical to
Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence, attempts to place ISI under Ministry of
Interior, the offer of sending DG ISI to India after Mumbai attacks, contents
of Kerry-Lugar Bill (in a way similar to the ‘memo’), attempts to permit Indian
ingress into Afghanistan through Afghan Transit Trade, grant of MFN status to
India, and so on, are manifestations of government’s desire to align itself
with USA’s line of thinking.
The military establishment; since Pakistan’s
inception, the military establishment has been playing a role, directly or
indirectly, in the formulation of important policies, strategies thereof, and
enjoyed USA’s support. For the last few years, however, the USA finds the
military establishment as an impediment to their agenda in the region and
inclined to deal with the civilian leadership, whom they find more
‘responsive’. Amid such mistrust between the US leadership and military
establishment, the 2nd May 2011 incident served as the last nail in
the coffin. Coupled with that, because of its perceived failure on ground, the
military establishment started to lose relevance at a fast pace, making way for
the other power centres, especially the government, to fill the vacuum and
assert.
Thus, while an understanding already existed
between the PPP leadership and their US counterparts to undermine Pakistan’s
military establishment, 2nd May incident provided an opportunity to
go for the kill. The PPP leadership, however, to USA’s dismay, continued to
show reluctance to comply and take drastic steps against the military
establishment, fearing it may backfire as happened in 1999.
Hence, the ‘memo’, which apparently sought US
guarantees against the military establishment, but, as the indicators suggest,
was actually meant to trap President Zardari into submission. Known for his
slippery character, full of ambition and ‘intellect’, Haqqani probably played a
double game on behalf of the Americans to achieve that.
The contents of the ‘memo’ were purposely leaked
out to put Zardari under pressure and as he was substantially cornered,
especially after Admiral Mike Mullen’s admission about the existence of ‘memo’,
the Americans jumped in to get the best deal. While it is clear that Zardari
was assured ‘protection’ and support in memo-gate investigations, as evident
from his body language after return from ‘treatment’ abroad, what has been
promised in return is anybody’s guess.
As a result of the ‘understanding’ reached, the
nation witnessed complete complicity between USA and Pakistan Government in
memo-gate probe. Admiral Mike Mullen completely downplayed the ‘memo’ as
something insignificant, notwithstanding the fact that his well known parting
testimony to the Congressional Committee was based on the ‘admissions’
contained in the ‘memo’.
Then, James Jones submitted a self-contradictory
affidavit in support of Haqqani ( for details read my comments published in the
NEWS POST on 22 December 2011) and later declined to face the commission as he
knew that he could never stand his ground. Besides, US senators, media and,
most significantly, Bruce Riedel, a former CIA analyst, advisor to four US
Presidents and a known Jewish lobbyist, have been very active in Haqqani’s
support. The State Department went out of the way and adopted a threatening
posture, even causing aspersions on Pakistan’s Judiciary, against all norms of
diplomacy. In nutshell, the USA Administration came out strongly to back the
Pakistan Government, especially Haqqani, on ‘memo-gate’. How the ‘Pakistani
rescue apparatus’ was set into motion to save Haqqani, and the government, is
in itself a long story to dwell upon.
Why this complicity and in return for what, is a
question which must haunt every patriot Pakistani, especially the military
establishment. One thing is, however, clear – the Americans now enjoy a much
greater grip on our ruling hierarchy. Thus to me, memo-gate has already done
the damage.
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