Pakistan’s
geo-strategic location as gate-way to Central Asia and its emergence as a
nuclear armed ‘Islamic state’, have made it extremely vulnerable to power games
of many countries with the USA as the major player. Though apparently they attacked Afghanistan
to topple the Taliban Government and bring perpetrators of 9/11 to justice, in
my view, they, in any case, would have attacked Afghanistan on one pretext or
another to gain and maintain foot-hold in Central
Asia, which is considered imperative for implementation of their ‘containment
of China’ strategy. And, since, the USA sees India as a strategic partner in
their ‘Grand Design’ for the region, by implication Pakistan must be brought to
a level of a pliant state and de-fanged as a nuclear irritant to India.
To
achieve the above mentioned objectives vis-à-vis Pakistan, the USA
Administration could exercise three options – (1) The ‘military option’ (2)
‘Erstwhile USSR model’, whereby, USSR was internally destabilized, made
economically unviable and then a deal was struck for dismantling of its nuclear
warheads deployed outside the Russian Federation (3) The ‘indirect control
model’ i.e controlling a country by controlling its leadership.
The
military option could have grave ramifications and, as such, discarded by US
policy makers, unless absolutely warranted. Former US
President Bush, under the influence of anti-Pakistan lobbies, tried to
implement the ‘Erstwhile USSR model’ in Pakistan, wherein, CIA-RAW Nexus found
commonality of interests with a group of Taliban to breed instability. Pakistan
responded by double-dealing with them and as it became clear by end 2006 that
the strategy was bound to failure, the US policy makers decided to exercise the
third option, ‘to achieve control on Pakistan by controlling Pakistan’s
leadership, through incentives and coercion’. This strategy is not only
followed in most of the Middle Eastern countries but the past history of
most of the areas that now comprise Pakistan also lent credence to the adopted
strategy which reveals that through centuries, invaders from the North
(Afghanistan / Central Asia) and the British ruled the area in connivance with
influential locals, who in return for certain ‘incentives’ owed allegiance to
these foreign rulers. The masses also generally displayed subservience to these
so-called ruling elites, ‘imposed’ on them by ‘outsiders’.
Though USA Administrations had always felt comfortable to deal
with military dictators, yet historically, they, at a certain stage tended to
show defiance. As such, when in 2006 Musharraf was found reluctant to dance to
their tune, it was principally decided to invest in the political leadership.
Benazir, while in exile, played a major role in reinforcing this thought
process. The strategy by USA vis-à-vis Pakistan, thus, envisaged; (1) Pakistani
leaders willing to support the US agenda in the region would be ‘assisted’ to
reach the corridors of power (2) Ingress
in the major institutions would be achieved by cultivating ‘local assets’,
thereby, establishing a network to ‘elevate and protect’ those who comply and
‘marginalize’ those not falling in line (3) Preferably, with passage of time,
alternate leadership would be prepared to ensure friendly change, if situation
so demands (4)
Rampant corruption, economic dependence on USA and negative
internal dynamics of Pakistan would serve as tools to support the strategy.
Musharraf was, thus, ‘persuaded’ to enter into a deal with
Benazir, NRO was promulgated, Benazir returned, changed her stance being a true
leader, became a victim in a suicide attack and Zardari provided the required
replacement.
While
NRO brokered by the USA had paved the way for return and assent to power of
‘local assets’ willing to play their game, what could be expected of them in
return; firstly, to support the USA’s ‘Grand Design’ in the region as mentioned
above and, secondly, create internal environment for successful application of
USA’s strategy of converting Pakistan into a pliant state in the long term. In
my view, following undertakings by the ‘assets’, implanted through NRO or
already emplaced, would ensure
achievement of these objectives; (1) Crippling of Pakistan’s economy to
a level, whereby, it remains dependent on USA (2) Sabotage of Pakistan’s
nuclear program through indirect methods (3) Undermining of the Army’s status
as a center of gravity, establishing control over them, and curtailing their
ability to breed ‘Strategic Defiance’ to the USA’s ‘Grand Design’ in the region
(4) Assisting in ingress of CIA ‘assets’ in major institutions to support the
‘implanted’ leadership. (Imprints of this ‘ingress’ are already visible if one
critically observes recent happenings e.g in the memogate scandal, a ‘rescue
apparatus’ has been immediately energized and set into motion to protect those
looking after US interests) (5) Accepting India’s pre-eminence and undertaking
measures to ensure that the Pakistani nation reconciles with the idea (6)
Supporting USA’s war effort in the region.
Though
these ‘assets’ have managed to deliver to their ‘sponsors’ on different fronts,
yet it failed to achieve any progress with regard to ‘control’ over the Armed
Forces. 2 May 2011, provided a unique opportunity to the ruling elite to gain
‘control’ over the Army as its image hit the rock bottom. They could even have
acted against the Army leadership by virtue of the authority vested in them by
the constitution but lacked the courage to do so without guaranteed US support
and, hence, the memo was initiated, which is a reality beyond doubt. Though the
Government’s desire to achieve ‘control’ over the military establishment is a
legitimate one, yet seeking help of a foreign power for the purpose and, most
importantly, the offers made, thereof, in return are serious issues impinging
on our sovereignty.
From
the above perspective, the memogate investigations assume greater importance as
the outcome would ultimately set direction for the nation. If the justice
prevails, the nation may hope to break the shackles of slavery being woven
around it and in case the CIA’s fully emplaced ‘rescue apparatus’ is able to
save the perpetrators of ‘memogate’, the nation would be destined to
enslavement as in the past, this time to be controlled directly or indirectly by the USA, through their
implanted ‘assets’ – colonization of a new kind.
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