Will India reciprocate by words, and deeds (My article published in the NEWS on 21 April 2012)

Avalanche at Gayari is, indeed, a sad incident but out of this tragedy emanates hope for the future of the peoples of this region. First, the opposition leader, while visiting the site suggested that both Pakistan and India should resolve the Siachen issue and the former should lead the latter in pulling out of the area. The next day, General Kayani also talked on the subject, suggested bilateral resolution of the Siachen issue and went beyond by declaring that the ‘nation should spend less on defence and more on the welfare of the masses’.

While Nawaz Sharif’s suggestion of ‘pulling out first’, though good intentioned, is a clear manifestation of his lack of understanding of the implications of unilateral withdrawal of forces from a strategically important location, such as Siachen, General Kayani’s suggestion carries more substance to build on. The developments, however, raise three important questions; will the Indians reciprocate, not only by words but by their deeds, will the money saved be spent on welfare of the masses as suggested by the COAS and, most importantly, should we wait for incidents like Gayari to drive sense into the policy makers and move beyond?

While handling of the multifarious challenges that mar Indo-Pakistan relations is the domain of the political leadership, General Kayani’s statement about ‘spending less on defence’, directly relates to the military’s sphere, response to the threat and how it would manifest.

In this context, we must have no doubt that India nurtures aspirations to become a regional and super power for which, besides other pre-requisites, Pakistan must be reduced to a pliant state and, as such, India must remain central in our threat perception. We must, however, be very clear about the ways the threat may manifest / is manifesting, especially if we are to curtail defence spending.

Though India has embarked upon modernization of her Armed Forces with developments / inductions which are apparently Pakistan specific, especially with regard to her Army, yet, in my view, she is unlikely to opt for use of military instrument for achievement of her objectives vis-à-vis Pakistan and continue to adopt indirect approach, as hitherto, in collaboration with her allies. While this view point may not be endorsed by some hard-liners, it is based on cogent reasons, which are;  (1) In the obtaining environment, space for traditional application of military instrument is gradually shrinking and non-traditional security threats are taking centre stage (2)Chances of a conventional war between two STABLE nuclear states are very remote. Gravest threats to any nuclear power are internal instability and unviable economic conditions eg dismemberment of former USSR (3) India is progressing at a fast pace, for her the stakes are too high to opt for a conventional war, especially when other viable options are available to undermine Pakistan (4)        In any case, achievement of India’s perceived politico military aim which could be degradation of Pakistan’s military and economic potential, is neither in the interest of India nor the world at large, as a depleted Pakistan would be highly prone to extremism, with disastrous implications not only for the region but also the international community (5) Failure to achieve their war objectives, in case the Indians opt for a conventional war, would be disastrous and may result into their break up. Why should India adopt such a course? (6)India can and is achieving her objectives vis-a-vis Pakistan through such ‘non-military means’ that even our nuclear deterrence, which is against conventional military threat, is becoming irrelevant - safest option for India.

India is aspiring to become a super power and for power projection, greater investment is required in Air Force and Navy, while maintaining a comparatively smaller, but well equipped, Army. As such, their Army leadership is looking for justification to continue to maintain a big Army by asserting that a conventional war was still possible with Pakistan and by exaggerating bogey of Chinese threat.

Thus, while the Indian Army is looking for relevance, Pakistan need not follow the suit. Doing so, would tantamount to falling in their trap as Pakistan would crumble economically, resulting into ultimate social break-down, facilitating pursuance of Indians’ strategy of subduing Pakistan through indirect means.

Thus, General Kayani’s statement regarding ‘spending less on defence’ is reflective of his deeper understanding of the nature of the threat Pakistan faces today, and response thereof. Will this thought process be manifested in the upcoming budget? Let’s wait and see.