Bounty on Hafiz Saeed (My article published in THE NEWS on 6th April 2012)

Normally head-money is placed on criminals / terrorists in the hiding. As such, USA has created history and given indications for the things to come, by putting head-money on Hafiz Saeed who is a free Pakistani citizen, is now trying to enter the mainstream politics and when militancy in IHK, of which India has always accused him, has slowed down. It was, thus, natural if the news came as a shocker for the entire Pakistani nation and being construed, by and large, as yet another act of unilateralism by the only super power. Why at a stage when Pak-US relations are under turbulence and the Parliament is discussing contours of future Pak-US relations, would USA take such an action and to serve what purpose, will remain a question under discussion for a few days. To understand, we need to be clear about US objectives for the 21^st century - Pursuance of US interests, interests of the allies and interests of the partners – in the same sequence. The others, in which apparently Pakistan also falls, matter less and expected to facilitate.

The Pakistani leadership assigned with the formulation of foreign policy, especially relations with USA, must understand that the latter has a well defined agenda to pursue in the region, any hindrance in that pursuit would not be tolerated and taken as a hostile act. In this regard, opening of supply routes is critically important and, as such, the announcement to put bounty on Hafiz Saeed at this stage is to give a clear-cut message to the Pakistan Government to comply, as well as, to intimidate the groups threatening its forceful closure, even if the Government permits it.

Secondly, by announcing the decision at India, the Americans have conveyed that, irrespective of the role Pakistan plays for USA, India gets pre-eminence in relations. In fact, the decision was meant to and has pleased India.

Thirdly, Difa-e-Pakistan’s rallies, of which Hafiz Saeed is one of the active members, is emerging as a small but violent force which could threaten USA’s interests in the region. Since, this out-fit is perceived to be supported by the establishment and the organization which Hafiz Saeed heads, is considered by the Americans and Indians as ISI’s proxy, we may not even rule out connivance of Pakistan Government in the decision. In a country where there is trust deficit between the institutions, anything of the sort is possible. Logically also, the kind of close relations our Government thinks it has with the US Administration, the latter should have consulted them before taking decision on Hafiz Saeed. If they have not, as the Government’s stance is, the act gives a clear indication of where the US policy makers place Pakistan in their scheme of things.

Whatever the motivation behind the decision, it is clear that USA is in no mood to play games with Pakistan, means business and would go to any extent to achieve what it wants. The Government, as the indicators are, understands it well and willing to comply, but there are parties who feel that the USA is cornered, desperately needs Pakistan’s assistance for pursuance of her objectives in the region and that we could play around with them for a while to extract maximum in return. Probably, the message is meant for the latter category.

Though, in my view, at this stage the decision is symbolic but we may not rule out the possibility of USA taking this matter to UN to put pressure on Pakistan, in case she is found non-cooperating. While the Government is not likely to give any forceful reaction and may even signal tacit approval, any retaliation by Hafiz Saeed’s followers would surely be against Pakistan’s interest and further tarnish her image. The best course for Hafiz Saeed would be to understand the obtaining international environment, get into the mainstream and take part in country’s political activities, including elections.

The Pakistan Government must understand that the noose is being tightened around Pakistan’s neck and to break loose, it must take decisions, and soon, which enhance its relevance in the international community and not those which push Pakistan further towards isolation. While we must play our cards well, we must also know the limits beyond which our brinkmanship may fail, especially if we try to base it on some negative potential. The need of the hour is to put own house in order so as to face external challenges up-front – the only option left for Pakistan.