For predicting the future political landscape of
Pakistan, it is imperative that we have a clear understanding of our national
psyche developed over centuries and where we stand today with respect to the
major players who are likely to shape Pakistan’s political future, at least in
the near term.
To understand as to why we are what we are, we need
to trace the history of our region which reveals that through centuries,
warriors from the North (Afghanistan / Central Asia) invaded the fertile lands
of Punjab and further south, ruled the area by brute force and used influential
locals (sell offs) for collecting tax on their behalf, in return for some
privileges and status. The locals, instead of defending their motherland, always
succumbed and a number of young men normally joined the invading forces as low
rank soldiers to share the booty. The remaining masses in general learned to
live under subjugation, seeking survival by all means, right or wrong. The
British adopted the same strategy, ruled for a century by using / controlling
through enticements the same two segments of this region – influential who
became feudal lords and the uniformed lot. These became distinct ‘elite
classes’ for serving the British and for the remaining, subservience became the
norm.
After creation of Pakistan nothing changed with the
exception that a tussle started for ascendency between the same two ‘elite
classes’, i.e predominantly feudal based political leadership and the uniformed
establishment, in which, barring few intermittent periods, the latter mostly
prevailed due to division amongst political leadership and their failure to
deliver whenever in power, successful conversion of Pakistan into a security
state by the establishment ensuring their relevance, indifference of the masses
and, most importantly, support by the US Administration who felt comfortable to
deal with one man at the top. (This has remained USA’s practice, especially in
countries where strong anti-US feelings exist, little realizing that such
sentiments emanate because of this very approach).
Paradigm shift in the political landscape of
Pakistan started to manifest in the last 6-7 years with the reversal of most of
the above factors. It started with the US Administration’s decision to invest
in the political leadership, albeit a pliant one, rather than Musharraf, who,
in their view, had started double-dealing with them. Benazir played a major
role in bringing about this change of thought as she, while in exile, was able
to convince the US Administration that they were betting on the wrong horse.
She was able to successfully convince the Americans that she had the popularity
at grass- root level, could mould public opinion in USA’s favour, she was
capable of controlling extremism and willing to play USA’s game in the region.
Convinced, the US Administration, acceded and Musharraf was accordingly
‘convinced’ for her return to Pakistan. The other fundamental change came from
within, whereby, an understanding developed between Benazir and Nawaz Sharif
that they would not let themselves to be used by the establishment against each
other, rule by consensus amongst themselves and let their children, and their
children reap the fruits. Benazir was unfortunately assassinated and succeeded
by her spouse, Zardari. With USA’s support waning, Musharraf’s fall was a
matter of time, bringing down with him the entire edifice of establishment’s
ascendency.
Zardari, being a very shrewd politician and
bestowed with many hidden qualities, both positive and negative, successfully
formed the PPP led government, he himself became the President and since then
has successfully overcome many challenges by adopting a simple strategy; for
those who matter, “support me and get whatever you want” and for the Americans,
“support me, empower me and get results”.
Today, one can safely assume that Zardari is very
close to the US Administration, has out-smarted all politicians, neutralized
the establishment, diluted judiciary’s power base and has been able to woo some
of those, including media-persons and journalists, who could act as spoilers in
his pursuit for maintaining ascendency. He knows how to win-over willing and
unwilling partners and has accumulated enough resources to buy loyalties. The
only thing lacking is his ability to deliver to the masses and ensure good
governance, but then in our beloved country this has never been the criterion.
(Those who do not agree may go through the results of recently held
by-elections).
Nawaz Sharif, the 2nd major player in the political
arena, simply stating, lacks the abilities and political acumen to counter
Zardari who has already taken the former for a ride, not once but many a times.
Nawaz Sharif’s anti-establishment phobia and unwillingness to forgive those who
sided with Musharraf have been successfully exploited by his main rival. Living
with self-conceived euphoria that owing to his so-called principled politics he
would clinch the top slot in the next elections, Nawaz Sharif fails to
comprehend that, as the indicators are, he is already confined to Punjab.
Thus, with the establishment cornered, judiciary
gradually losing relevance because of inability to assert in important cases,
media with loop-holes to be exploited, Nawaz Sharif in a state of war with
everybody, including his own self, and living in illusions, as well as
delusions, ANP as willing and MQM as unwilling partners, PML (Q) in the bag,
Imran Khan lacking the understanding of Pakistan’s real politics, un-flinging
USA’s support and, above all, subservient or indifferent masses, PPP is likely
to head the next coalition government also and we must learn to live with
Zardari as our President for a long haul. Of course, under him Pakistan will
neither remain a security state nor become a welfare state but will be
converted into pliant state, a status we are doomed to be condemned being a
bunch of people who stay indifferent during elections, sell cheaply, consider
corruption as a non-issue, for whom self-elevation by all means, right or
wrong, remains the norm and who willingly allow themselves to be exploited. We
deserve Zardari.
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