Too much excitement, too soon (My article published in THE NEWS on 27 October 2012)

Verdict on Asghar Khan case has stirred storm in a tea cup. Apparently, PPP is sensing a kill, PML (N) is on the defensive and a few anchor-persons known for their anti-establishment stance, for different reasons, are considering it an opportunity to further their agenda. In my reckoning, there is too much excitement, too soon as little is going to come out of the decision which will only be used for gaining political mileage, resulting into greater acrimony among the political parties.

For many, it’s a landmark decision as for the first time in the history of this country, the former chiefs of the Army and ISI have been directly implicated for distributing public money amongst certain politicians. The missing link, however, is why did they do it? Had they some personal agenda or was it an institutional undertaking? If the amount was distributed among the anti-BB politicians, what were the reasons for stopping BB from reaching the corridors of power.

In this regard, Lieutenant General (R) Hamid Gul has often admitted that he was instrumental in making IJI and has been challenging the judiciary to summon him for explaining his reasons for doing so. The bench dealing with the Asghar Khan case did not summon him but in case of trial of the former chiefs of Army and ISI, I am sure Lieutenant General (R) Hamid Gul would be called as the first witness and, going by the confidence he displays, I am sure he would have many revelations to make, which may not only hurt PPP badly but also spoil its relations with the military establishment. So, to me, trial of the generals would do more harm than good for the country.

Another aspect of the verdict that may cause uncertainty is that while the confessions of those who distributed money were considered good enough to implicate them, their same testimony is not good enough to implicate those who took the money. If tomorrow it is not proved that the supposed receivers took the money, what would happen to those who admit distributing the money. It is just as if a person confesses to committing a murder but would we declare him a murderer if the victim is still alive.

The third aspect of the verdict relates to the president's political activities. In all likelihood, President Zardari is not going to shun his political activities, will continue to be the de-facto head and lead the party, especially in view of the forthcoming elections. As such, we may be heading for yet another tussle between the President and Judiciary.

Thus, I see fewer chances of any convictions, but greater polarization.

The timing of the announcement of short order is yet another aspect which, I feel, could have been deliberated. We know that these days a consensus was being developed successfully against the militants after the Malala incident and the verdict has totally diverted public attention, indirectly benefiting the militants. Could it have been delayed for a few days for a better cause?

The outcome also raises an important question; is it a pre-cursor to opening other such cases? Pakistan’s history is full of betrayals, treachery and unconstitutional undertakings by the military establishment, Judiciary and the politicians. As a practice, whenever the military took-over power, the Judiciary mostly validated the act and the politicians in the opposition welcomed it. Was not the last military take-over by Musharraf validated by Judiciary, with the present CJ as part of the bench, and BB supported the coup? He was even given unprecedented powers to amend the constitution by the court. Can the country, already in the doldrums, afford to dig all the previous such cases and punish the perpetrators?

Already, NRO case has wasted over four years with no meaningful outcome from public perspective, now we are embroiled in controversy over Asghar Khan case verdict and more cases are in the offing, starting with proceedings on the memo-gate commission.

While the judicial process may take its course, can we afford the polarization unnecessarily generated as an outcome of decisions, especially when already facing existential threat from militancy and extremism – a point for our Judiciary, politicians and anchor-persons to ponder? To put it simply; do we want to live in the past or ready to move on? 

Is there a method to ongoing madness?

Commenting on the show cause notice issued to the incumbent PM in NRO case, a prominent lawyer and human rights activist termed the decision “the beginning of an end to the democratic process”. While she has a right to her opinion, in my view, there is absolutely no threat to democracy through an unconstitutional act by the military establishment but, surely, the federation is threatened by inaptness, self-serving and ego-centric approach of the political elite, perceived lack of neutrality on the part of Judiciary and rising extremism and disillusionment among the masses. Are the stake holders oblivious of the consequences of the prevailing madness or there is a method behind it, is a question agitating each Pakistani’s mind.

To start with the ruling elite; having failed in every sphere of governance, destroying institutions and bringing the country to the brink of economic disaster, they surely need ‘excuses and reasons’ for their failures, besides pursuing political martyrdom before the next elections. Stand-off with Judiciary is serving both these purposes. As such, there is a method behind the on-going tussle with the Judiciary, though self-serving at the peril of the masses as the PPP leadership knows that writing the letter to the Swiss authorities would be of no consequence and they may ultimately oblige before instalment of interim government.

To the contrary, Judiciary has allowed it-self to be entrapped by the PPP leadership. With each passing day, it is losing grounds against the PPP’s onslaught through effective use of media. Lack of will on the part of Judiciary to take on the PPP stalwarts who are blatantly portraying the CJ of being biased against their party has started to take its toll. People at large are loudly whispering as to why contempt proceedings have been initiated against Malik Riaz but not against many others who are overtly involved in contempt of the CJ.  Arsalan Iftikhar’s case, and it’s mishandling, has further tarnished Judiciary’s image which, despite apparent aggressive posturing, is now clearly playing on the back foot.

Frustrated and disillusioned by PPP’s miss-governance, it was natural for the nation to pin high hopes in PTI and PML (N) for providing alternate leadership. Their hopes, however, have been dashed because of the on-going tussle between the two parties. It’s a shame to watch on TV the top leaders of both these parties levelling allegations and counter-allegations against each other, presenting spectre of self-serving pygmies. Both Imran Khan and NS know that ‘a divided opposition is a dead opposition’, yet they are continuing to fight against each other and one finds no method in their madness.

No doubt, in the last few years, media has emerged as a major power centre to reckon with. However, its pre-eminence has also become a vulnerability exposing it to powerful predators vying to tame and fix the upright. Resultantly, the recent infighting, graft charges and lack of objectivity on the part of certain anchors is beginning to damage media’s credibility and lending it prone to manipulation - a bad omen for the nation.

One fails to understand the method, or lack of it, behind the madness of the masses in general. They would curse and abuse a particular leader for five years but vote for him in return for a trivial gain or due to family compulsion. This phenomenon is exploited by the inapt politicians who fail to deliver after reaching the corridors of power, yet are confident to be re-elected. Zardari’s recent pronouncement that he would form the next governments in all the provinces is a manifestation of this mind-set – the people willingly lent themselves to be taken for a ride.    

And finally the military establishment whose image reached its lowest ebb in the aftermath of 2^nd May 2011 incident. Since then, the khakis’ leadership has played its cards well by reacting strongly to NATO’s attack on Salala Post, making a point where required and displaying flexibility on comparative non-issues. Resultantly, the military establishment has regained relevance, both internally and vis-a-vis USA, which is once again inclined to deal directly with its leadership. Zardari, politically smart as he is, has been more than obliging in this regard.

As for the USA, period up to year 2014 is extremely important due to planned withdrawal of their forces from Afghanistan and its implications thereof. They would surely prefer the present dispensation to continue, with or without elections, as amongst our top political leadership, Zardari has the ‘political acumen and sagacity’ to ‘understand’ their ‘requirements’ and oblige.

Thus, irrespective of the damage the ongoing ‘madness’ is causing to the federation, Zardari is gaining ascendency each passing day as his ‘methods’ are beginning to yield results in the shape of diminishing Judiciary, divided opposition, a tamed chunk of media and ‘satisfied’ military establishment. In the obtaining internal environment and masses which remain prone to manipulation, we are likely to have a PPP led coalition government with Zardari as our President in the next term also. For how long this country can sustain such a dispensation, is anybody’s guess.

For my prediction to be proven wrong, the opposition must end its infighting and get united, Judiciary must be seen as delivering prompt justice, the media must break the shackles and regain its true independence for unbiased coverage and the masses must make a commitment not to sell cheaply and get exploited in the future. Can all this be achieved? I very much doubt.

Agenda behind the ‘contempt’ and ‘dual nationality’ bills (my article published in The News on 11 July 2012)

Independent Judiciary is the essence of democracy and the Constitution is very clear about certain restrictions on the Pakistani citizens having ‘dual nationality’, and for good reasons. Why, then, the government is bent upon undermining the Judiciary by introducing the contempt bill and seeking amendment in the relevant article to permit holding of public offices by the ‘dual nationality’ holders? To get an answer, we need to understand the bigger picture. 

In my article titled, ‘colonization of a new kind’, Published in The NEWS on 4^th January 2012, I had tried to throw light on USA’s strategy to convert Pakistan into a ‘pliant’ state, an imperative for fulfilment of their ‘grand design’ in the region. To pursue this objective the strategy being adopted is to control Pakistan by controlling its leadership, through implementation of a well thought-out plan, whereby;  (1) Pakistani politicians willing to support the US agenda in the region would be ‘assisted’ to reach the corridors of power (2) Ingress would be made in major institutions by cultivating ‘local assets’, thereby, establishing a network to ‘elevate and protect’ those who comply and ‘marginalize’ those not falling in line (3) Alternate leadership would be prepared to ensure friendly change, if situation so demanded (4) Rampant corruption, economic dependence on USA and negative internal dynamics of Pakistan would serve as tools to support the strategy.

NRO was thus brokered by USA to pave the way for return and ascent to power of ‘leaders’, willing to dance to their tune. Having placed at the required positions, they were to achieve total control over institutions that may hinder pursuance of long-term US objectives. The major institutions to be tamed included the Parliament, military establishment and the Judiciary.

Thus, in pursuance of this agenda, the Parliament has been successfully converted into a ‘rubber-stamp body’ through enactment of 18^th Amendment, whereby, a party head has become so strong that he can even unseat a sitting PM of his party and if he is also the President, enjoying immunity, as is the case these days, the system can be termed anything but democracy. Unfortunately, the main opposition party also became a party to this undemocratic clause while pursuing their own selfish agendas. Now, the USA by just controlling 4-5 party-heads, can control the entire policy-making of Pakistan. One can imagine the consequences if these leaders also choose to become US citizens after passage of proposed bill on ‘dual nationality’.

After achieving control over the parliament, the guns were directed towards the military establishment to undermine the institution, to gain control over them and curtail their ability to breed ‘strategic defiance’ to the USA’s ‘grand design’ in the region. While the dilution of Army’s status as a centre of gravity is a good omen in a democratic dispensation, the conspiracy to undermine this institution would prove to be extremely detrimental for the country as the Army is, and must remain, relevant to Pakistan’s security. By securing dual nationality, the perpetrators conspiring against the military establishment would be able to pursue their agenda with greater freedom of action.

With the parliament marginalized and military establishment taking the back seat, the US backed Pakistani leadership hoped to get a free hand to pursue the given agenda but for pro-active judiciary which has emerged as a major irritant for the ruling elite, and  its patrons. Hence, the ‘contempt’ and ‘dual-nationality’ bills, which are aimed at becoming all powerful ‘untouchables’ so that the given foreign agenda could be pursued with impunity.

While it is expected that the Judiciary would thwart any attempt to undermine its independence, the ‘dual nationality’ bill, if passed, would have serious implications for Pakistan. Already, under the garb of constructing new embassy at Islamabad close to the Presidency and PM’s Secretariat and a consulate at Karachi, the US is in the process of developing bases in Pakistan. With the enactment of the proposed bill, we would probably one day have ruling elite with US passports, virtually running the country from the US base at Islamabad and taking decisions under US dictation, which may not be in our national interest   – colonization of a new kind.

As such, in my view, all those parliamentarians who support the ‘dual nationality’ bill would be responsible for placing the country under a de-facto foreign rule.  

Damage done (My article published in THE NEWS on 19 May 2012)

At last, despite many hiccups, the Judicial commission assigned to probe the memo-gate is about to finalize its findings. While the outcome of the investigations are not known, apparently, as a consequence to the probe, nobody would be tried for treason, endangering with country’s nuclear arsenal and for acts inimical to country’s sovereignty or conspiracy to undermine Pakistan’s security establishment. Now, at this stage, it is of little consequence whether Haqqani acted alone or was able to convince his Pakistani ‘boss’ for undertaking such a venture, how Mansoor Ijaz was involved and worked on whose behest, as the objectives set by the perpetrators stand achieved and Haqqani is in USA, free and probably living a luxurious life – an American ‘Hero’.

It is, however, important to understand as to what actually happened and in what way the memo-gate has damaged Pakistan. To ascertain, we must first be clear about the objectives of different stake-holders.                   

The USA; There is nothing more its Administration would want but to convert Pakistan into a pliant state, see her nuclear program rolled-back and the government must accede to their dictates for fulfilment of long-term agenda in the region. It finds Pakistan’s military establishment a hurdle in achievement of these objectives and, therefore, would do anything to undermine them. The ‘memo’, irrespective of who prepared it, offered just that in a platter. Logically, the USA Administration should have grabbed the opportunity as it was presented. However, they did not and waited for the right time to strike in pursuance of a bigger agenda.     

The Government; anybody who is familiar with Pakistan’s polity understands that each democratic government must nurture the desire to rein-in the military establishment. Though this legitimate desire can easily be fulfilled by achieving moral ascendancy through performance in accordance with the given mandate, yet from day one, the present government is striving to develop a commonality of interests with the USA Administration to achieve this objective. President Zardari’s initial statements inimical to Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence, attempts to place ISI under Ministry of Interior, the offer of sending DG ISI to India after Mumbai attacks, contents of Kerry-Lugar Bill (in a way similar to the ‘memo’), attempts to permit Indian ingress into Afghanistan through Afghan Transit Trade, grant of MFN status to India, and so on, are manifestations of government’s desire to align itself with USA’s line of thinking.

The military establishment; since Pakistan’s inception, the military establishment has been playing a role, directly or indirectly, in the formulation of important policies, strategies thereof, and enjoyed USA’s support. For the last few years, however, the USA finds the military establishment as an impediment to their agenda in the region and inclined to deal with the civilian leadership, whom they find more ‘responsive’. Amid such mistrust between the US leadership and military establishment, the 2^nd May 2011 incident served as the last nail in the coffin. Coupled with that, because of its perceived failure on ground, the military establishment started to lose relevance at a fast pace, making way for the other power centres, especially the government, to fill the vacuum and assert. 

Thus, while an understanding already existed between the PPP leadership and their US counterparts to undermine Pakistan’s military establishment, 2^nd May incident provided an opportunity to go for the kill. The PPP leadership, however, to USA’s dismay, continued to show reluctance to comply and take drastic steps against the military establishment, fearing it may backfire as happened in 1999.

Hence, the ‘memo’, which apparently sought US guarantees against the military establishment, but, as the indicators suggest, was actually meant to trap President Zardari into submission. Known for his slippery character, full of ambition and ‘intellect’, Haqqani probably played a double game on behalf of the Americans to achieve that.

The contents of the ‘memo’ were purposely leaked out to put Zardari under pressure and as he was substantially cornered, especially after Admiral Mike Mullen’s admission about the existence of ‘memo’, the Americans jumped in to get the best deal. While it is clear that Zardari was assured ‘protection’ and support in memo-gate investigations, as evident from his body language after return from ‘treatment’ abroad, what has been promised in return is anybody’s guess.

As a result of the ‘understanding’ reached, the nation witnessed complete complicity between USA and Pakistan Government in memo-gate probe. Admiral Mike Mullen completely downplayed the ‘memo’ as something insignificant, notwithstanding the fact that his well known parting testimony to the Congressional Committee was based on the ‘admissions’ contained in the ‘memo’.

Then, James Jones submitted a self-contradictory affidavit in support of Haqqani ( for details read my comments published in the NEWS POST on 22 December 2011) and later declined to face the commission as he knew that he could never stand his ground. Besides, US senators, media and, most significantly, Bruce Riedel, a former CIA analyst, advisor to four US Presidents and a known Jewish lobbyist, have been very active in Haqqani’s support. The State Department went out of the way and adopted a threatening posture, even causing aspersions on Pakistan’s Judiciary, against all norms of diplomacy. In nutshell, the USA Administration came out strongly to back the Pakistan Government, especially Haqqani, on ‘memo-gate’. How the ‘Pakistani rescue apparatus’ was set into motion to save Haqqani, and the government, is in itself a long story to dwell upon.

Why this complicity and in return for what, is a question which must haunt every patriot Pakistani, especially the military establishment. One thing is, however, clear – the Americans now enjoy a much greater grip on our ruling hierarchy. Thus to me, memo-gate has already done the damage.

A hidden agenda (My article published in the NEWS on 1st May)

Before the dismemberment of Pakistan in 1971, a few paid heed to those warning of impending disaster, on 15^th December 1971 the nation thought, and made to believe, that everything was fine and under control, on 16^th more than half the country was gone and on 17^th majority of us behaved if nothing serious had happened. This is the dilemma of our nation which chooses to stay in oblivion. Should this remain the case? I do not think so and, as such, would not hesitate to dilate on the issue of proposed Saraiki Province, covering an angle which may seem farfetched to many of us.   

After completing more than four years of their prescribed five years tenure, suddenly the PPP leadership has raised the ante on the proposed Saraiki Province on grounds that the people there are facing deprivation, notwithstanding the fact that in this period the PM has spent hundreds of billions of rupees in just Multan, his city, and not on alleviating the misgivings of the Saraiki people. What then is the hidden agenda behind this demand?

Though apparently the move is a political ploy in view of the forthcoming elections, yet a critical analysis of past events would reveal that demand for a Saraiki Province is continuation of a systematic process to break and weaken the present Punjab Province as part of a larger agenda of our ruling ‘DUO’, as well as, of those outside powers, which are even envisaging Pakistan’s balkanization. Unfortunately some of the other political parties, including Punjab based, are conniving with the PPP in pursuance of this agenda with little understanding of its implications.

The process of weakening Punjab started by denying it gas and electricity, essentially required to run its industry, which is now at brink of disaster.

Secondly, Government’s lack of meaningful response to construction of new hydroelectric power projects, dams and proposed link canals by India on the rivers feeding Punjab would ultimately deny it the required water resources, seriously affecting its agricultural output also. After creation of proposed Saraiki Province, especially if it is extended up to Mianwali in the North, the Indus River will also be delinked from the remaining Punjab. 

Thirdly, Punjab may one day act as a conduit of Indo-Afghan trade via Wagah, a source of income. That also is being taken care of by planned opening of Sulaimanke route which would probably be linked with the Indus Highway through the proposed Saraiki Province to KP, Afghanistan and beyond.

Punjab would, thus, virtually be rendered as an impotent entity without industry, depleted agricultural output and meagre other sources of income, totally dependent on others to survive –  A price Punjab must pay for having a sold out leadership, always seeking personal interests. Undermining of Punjab would also fulfil the agenda of those foreign powers who feel that even after Pakistan’s balkanization, the Punjab, in its present configuration, with nuclear weapons and strong Army, would remain a threat to their interests.

Will undermining Punjab and creation of Saraiki Province complete the agenda? I do not think so. Though farfetched, we must not rule out the possibility that the duo, the President and PM, may even be thinking in terms of unification of present Sindh and proposed Saraiki Province in any future dispensation. Following lent credence to such a thought process;   

Politically, the people of Saraiki speaking areas are more akin to the rural Sindh – feudalism, monopoly of land owning and subservient masses. It would be easier for the PPP to buy off important families or coerce them into submission (as was done in Bhutto era through land reforms). Culturally also, people of most of the areas included in the proposed Saraiki Province are closer to rural Sindh than Central Punjab.

With no industrial base and very little natural resources, the proposed Saraiki Province will have meagre sources of income in the shape of agricultural output and will be dependent on other provinces, especially Sindh, for their basic needs. Having control over the Indus River, the Saraiki Province will gain importance for Sindh which, in return, can provide energy and transit facilities.

Thus, cultural cohesion and economic dependence would provide strong basis for future unification of Sindh and Saraiki Province as one entity. With Saraiki leaders like Gilani, who believe in loyalty to ‘Masters’ and even their graves, rather than the motherland, nobody should have a doubt as to who would occupy the driving seat. The numerical differential between the Urdu speaking of urban Sindh and rural Sindh, along with Saraiki areas, would enhance further - Zardari & Co in total control with marginalized MQM.

The above may seem a figment of imagination, however, a possibility. If it materializes, Zardari may be regarded by nationalist Sindhis as the ‘Quaid’ who revived greater Sindh, but in history he would surely go down as “Pakistan’s Gorbachev”.  To the contrary, he can become a true leader of over 180 million Pakistanis by delivering as per aspirations of the people, rather than opting for dirty politics. Choice still remains with him.

For the other mainstream political parties, there is no other option left but to shun their differences, rise above their self seeking agendas and get united to thwart the designs of those bent upon undermining Pakistan.

The deadly political impasse (My article published in The NEWS on 17th January 2012 )

Today, Pakistan faces a deadly political impasse with grave ramifications. The players include the government, opposition, judiciary, the Armed Forces, media, the masses and finally the foreign hand. To understand the nature of imbroglio and solution thereof, we need to be clear where each stakeholder stands today, what it is striving for and what must be done to sail through.

Starting with PPP led coalition government, which includes PPP, ANP, PML (Q) and MQM; The PPP, though enjoys strong support from USA because of the services rendered, has failed on the domestic front in every sphere of governance, involvement in corruption, destroying institutions, perpetual defiance to judiciary, stand-off with the Army, a recent development, and bringing the country to the brink of economic disaster, and, as such, has nothing to go to the masses and now vying to become political martyrs for gaining sympathy vote. And since martyrdom is not in sight, their frustration is growing with each passing day. Their only option is to take advantage of the little time they are left with, coupled with the short memory of the masses, and at least try to give a semblance of governance, besides curbing the tendency to deal politically the judicial matters confronted by the leadership. ANP, if ‘Railways’ is any gauge of their performance, has no option but to go along with PPP. PML (Q), in either case is facing extinction, and as such, should merge with either PPP or PML (N), using its well known art of ‘dealings’. In my reckoning they would be better of aligning with their parent party, if nothing else, for this country’s sake. The MQM, however, faces a dilemma - the day PPP is strong enough, MQM will be the likely target and, I am sure, their leadership knows it. As such, their survival is to stand on high moral grounds and must delink themselves from Government’s misdeeds.

The second stakeholder is the opposition; which is symbolized by Nawaz Sharif who, besides being a man of less than average intelligence, is suffering from a kind of ‘military takeover phobia’. These weaknesses have been successfully exploited by President Zardari and he, till recently, played the role of a friendly opposition. Still undecided, the opposition needs to get its act together. It’s now or never situation and time for redemption. En-masse resignations from the assemblies may save the day for them and for the country.   

The third stakeholder, Judiciary; though it has given some landmark decisions, yet the apex court is gradually losing moral ascendency and faith in the ‘revamped’ judiciary is dwindling because of, firstly, its inability to rein-in those bent upon maligning its image and, secondly, inability to get its decisions implemented on some important cases, for fear of political fall-out. Even the six options given in the NRO implementation case are a manifestation of expediency, as the infamous ‘law of necessity’. They have little time left to assert. 

The Armed Forces; This institution, till a few years back, could be ascribed as the center of gravity of this country - the status undergoing dilution with each passing day. The nation at large, which has invested and continues to invest in the Armed Forces, has great expectations from this institution. As such, despite successful operations in Swat and South Wazirstan, the masses were jolted by the intelligence, operational and security related failures as manifested in terrorist attacks on GHQ, Parade Lane, Mehran Base and, most significant, the 2nd May incident, having serious ramifications for the country. Besides, as the ensuing developments indicate, the strategy supposedly being followed by the military vis-à-vis USA has back fired and the Armed Forces have failed (at least in perception) in what the media calls ‘performance audit’. Sensing an opportunity, the ruling elite, with support of USA against some commitments, is trying to undermine the Army as an institution and, thus, a stand-off. The military leadership must continue to display restraint against ongoing provocations, perform on ground to thwart threats to Pakistan’s security, their primary responsibility, and concentrate on their professional pursuits – their only option to emerge victorious from the impasse. 

The fifth stake holder, the media; Till recently, the media played a very constructive role in highlighting the shortfalls in governance and institutional failures and acted as an independent and impartial monitoring body. However, the power it has started to generate for affecting changes, has also made it vulnerable to ‘enticements and coercion’, resulting into affiliations and lack of objectivity, though still not very pronounced. To those who have certain ‘motivation’ for taking sides, I would only request that they must shun pursuit of personal gains and play an impartial role as the stakes are too high – on media the future course of this country depends. 

Sixth stake holder, the masses; though in democracies, the people are masters of their destiny, in Pakistan, they have abdicated this privilege by remaining indifferent, and, as such, do not matter in the scheme of things. They must begin to assert and strive to break the shackles of subservience, or they would remain condemned to oblivion, as hither to.

Finally, the foreign hand, USA; for achievement of their long term objectives in the region, it is imperative that Pakistan must be ruled by a pliant leadership which must remain subservient to their demands. Contrary to previous practice of relying on military dictators, this time, they are betting on the civilian political leadership for the purpose and would go all out to protect the interests of their ‘assets’. However, since their strategy vis-à-vis Pakistan hinges on a ‘sold out’ leadership, it would mean more extremism and would ultimately be counter-productive. They must play a positive role in strengthening democracy to ensure a stable Pakistan, which is in everybody’s interest.

Colonization of a new kind (My article published in the NEWS on 4th January 2012)

Pakistan’s geo-strategic location as gate-way to Central Asia and its emergence as a nuclear armed ‘Islamic state’, have made it extremely vulnerable to power games of many countries with the USA as the major player.  Though apparently they attacked Afghanistan to topple the Taliban Government and bring perpetrators of 9/11 to justice, in my view, they, in any case, would have attacked Afghanistan on one pretext or another to gain and maintain foot-hold in Central Asia, which is considered imperative for implementation of their ‘containment of China’ strategy. And, since, the USA sees India as a strategic partner in their ‘Grand Design’ for the region, by implication Pakistan must be brought to a level of a pliant state and de-fanged as a nuclear irritant to India.

To achieve the above mentioned objectives vis-à-vis Pakistan, the USA Administration could exercise three options – (1) The ‘military option’ (2) ‘Erstwhile USSR model’, whereby, USSR was internally destabilized, made economically unviable and then a deal was struck for dismantling of its nuclear warheads deployed outside the Russian Federation (3) The ‘indirect control model’ i.e controlling a country by controlling its leadership.

The military option could have grave ramifications and, as such, discarded by US policy makers, unless absolutely warranted. Former US President Bush, under the influence of anti-Pakistan lobbies, tried to implement the ‘Erstwhile USSR model’ in Pakistan, wherein, CIA-RAW Nexus found commonality of interests with a group of Taliban to breed instability. Pakistan responded by double-dealing with them and as it became clear by end 2006 that the strategy was bound to failure, the US policy makers decided to exercise the third option, ‘to achieve control on Pakistan by controlling Pakistan’s leadership, through incentives and coercion’. This strategy is not only followed in most of the Middle Eastern countries but the past history of most of the areas that now comprise Pakistan also lent credence to the adopted strategy which reveals that through centuries, invaders from the North (Afghanistan / Central Asia) and the British ruled the area in connivance with influential locals, who in return for certain ‘incentives’ owed allegiance to these foreign rulers. The masses also generally displayed subservience to these so-called ruling elites, ‘imposed’ on them by ‘outsiders’.

Though USA Administrations had always felt comfortable to deal with military dictators, yet historically, they, at a certain stage tended to show defiance. As such, when in 2006 Musharraf was found reluctant to dance to their tune, it was principally decided to invest in the political leadership. Benazir, while in exile, played a major role in reinforcing this thought process. The strategy by USA vis-à-vis Pakistan, thus, envisaged; (1) Pakistani leaders willing to support the US agenda in the region would be ‘assisted’ to reach the corridors of power (2)  Ingress in the major institutions would be achieved by cultivating ‘local assets’, thereby, establishing a network to ‘elevate and protect’ those who comply and ‘marginalize’ those not falling in line (3) Preferably, with passage of time, alternate leadership would be prepared to ensure friendly change, if situation so demands (4)  Rampant corruption, economic dependence on USA and negative internal dynamics of Pakistan would serve as tools to support the strategy.

Musharraf was, thus, ‘persuaded’ to enter into a deal with Benazir, NRO was promulgated, Benazir returned, changed her stance being a true leader, became a victim in a suicide attack and Zardari provided the required replacement.      

While NRO brokered by the USA had paved the way for return and assent to power of ‘local assets’ willing to play their game, what could be expected of them in return; firstly, to support the USA’s ‘Grand Design’ in the region as mentioned above and, secondly, create internal environment for successful application of USA’s strategy of converting Pakistan into a pliant state in the long term. In my view, following undertakings by the ‘assets’, implanted through NRO or already emplaced, would ensure  achievement of these objectives; (1) Crippling of Pakistan’s economy to a level, whereby, it remains dependent on USA (2) Sabotage of Pakistan’s nuclear program through indirect methods (3) Undermining of the Army’s status as a center of gravity, establishing control over them, and curtailing their ability to breed ‘Strategic Defiance’ to the USA’s ‘Grand Design’ in the region (4) Assisting in ingress of CIA ‘assets’ in major institutions to support the ‘implanted’ leadership. (Imprints of this ‘ingress’ are already visible if one critically observes recent happenings e.g in the memogate scandal, a ‘rescue apparatus’ has been immediately energized and set into motion to protect those looking after US interests) (5) Accepting India’s pre-eminence and undertaking measures to ensure that the Pakistani nation reconciles with the idea (6) Supporting USA’s war effort in the region.      

Though these ‘assets’ have managed to deliver to their ‘sponsors’ on different fronts, yet it failed to achieve any progress with regard to ‘control’ over the Armed Forces. 2 May 2011, provided a unique opportunity to the ruling elite to gain ‘control’ over the Army as its image hit the rock bottom. They could even have acted against the Army leadership by virtue of the authority vested in them by the constitution but lacked the courage to do so without guaranteed US support and, hence, the memo was initiated, which is a reality beyond doubt. Though the Government’s desire to achieve ‘control’ over the military establishment is a legitimate one, yet seeking help of a foreign power for the purpose and, most importantly, the offers made, thereof, in return are serious issues impinging on our sovereignty. 

From the above perspective, the memogate investigations assume greater importance as the outcome would ultimately set direction for the nation. If the justice prevails, the nation may hope to break the shackles of slavery being woven around it and in case the CIA’s fully emplaced ‘rescue apparatus’ is able to save the perpetrators of ‘memogate’, the nation would be destined to enslavement as in the past, this time to be controlled directly or indirectly by the USA, through their implanted ‘assets’ – colonization of a new kind.