Is there a method to ongoing madness?

Commenting on the show cause notice issued to the incumbent PM in NRO case, a prominent lawyer and human rights activist termed the decision “the beginning of an end to the democratic process”. While she has a right to her opinion, in my view, there is absolutely no threat to democracy through an unconstitutional act by the military establishment but, surely, the federation is threatened by inaptness, self-serving and ego-centric approach of the political elite, perceived lack of neutrality on the part of Judiciary and rising extremism and disillusionment among the masses. Are the stake holders oblivious of the consequences of the prevailing madness or there is a method behind it, is a question agitating each Pakistani’s mind.

To start with the ruling elite; having failed in every sphere of governance, destroying institutions and bringing the country to the brink of economic disaster, they surely need ‘excuses and reasons’ for their failures, besides pursuing political martyrdom before the next elections. Stand-off with Judiciary is serving both these purposes. As such, there is a method behind the on-going tussle with the Judiciary, though self-serving at the peril of the masses as the PPP leadership knows that writing the letter to the Swiss authorities would be of no consequence and they may ultimately oblige before instalment of interim government.

To the contrary, Judiciary has allowed it-self to be entrapped by the PPP leadership. With each passing day, it is losing grounds against the PPP’s onslaught through effective use of media. Lack of will on the part of Judiciary to take on the PPP stalwarts who are blatantly portraying the CJ of being biased against their party has started to take its toll. People at large are loudly whispering as to why contempt proceedings have been initiated against Malik Riaz but not against many others who are overtly involved in contempt of the CJ.  Arsalan Iftikhar’s case, and it’s mishandling, has further tarnished Judiciary’s image which, despite apparent aggressive posturing, is now clearly playing on the back foot.

Frustrated and disillusioned by PPP’s miss-governance, it was natural for the nation to pin high hopes in PTI and PML (N) for providing alternate leadership. Their hopes, however, have been dashed because of the on-going tussle between the two parties. It’s a shame to watch on TV the top leaders of both these parties levelling allegations and counter-allegations against each other, presenting spectre of self-serving pygmies. Both Imran Khan and NS know that ‘a divided opposition is a dead opposition’, yet they are continuing to fight against each other and one finds no method in their madness.

No doubt, in the last few years, media has emerged as a major power centre to reckon with. However, its pre-eminence has also become a vulnerability exposing it to powerful predators vying to tame and fix the upright. Resultantly, the recent infighting, graft charges and lack of objectivity on the part of certain anchors is beginning to damage media’s credibility and lending it prone to manipulation - a bad omen for the nation.

One fails to understand the method, or lack of it, behind the madness of the masses in general. They would curse and abuse a particular leader for five years but vote for him in return for a trivial gain or due to family compulsion. This phenomenon is exploited by the inapt politicians who fail to deliver after reaching the corridors of power, yet are confident to be re-elected. Zardari’s recent pronouncement that he would form the next governments in all the provinces is a manifestation of this mind-set – the people willingly lent themselves to be taken for a ride.    

And finally the military establishment whose image reached its lowest ebb in the aftermath of 2^nd May 2011 incident. Since then, the khakis’ leadership has played its cards well by reacting strongly to NATO’s attack on Salala Post, making a point where required and displaying flexibility on comparative non-issues. Resultantly, the military establishment has regained relevance, both internally and vis-a-vis USA, which is once again inclined to deal directly with its leadership. Zardari, politically smart as he is, has been more than obliging in this regard.

As for the USA, period up to year 2014 is extremely important due to planned withdrawal of their forces from Afghanistan and its implications thereof. They would surely prefer the present dispensation to continue, with or without elections, as amongst our top political leadership, Zardari has the ‘political acumen and sagacity’ to ‘understand’ their ‘requirements’ and oblige.

Thus, irrespective of the damage the ongoing ‘madness’ is causing to the federation, Zardari is gaining ascendency each passing day as his ‘methods’ are beginning to yield results in the shape of diminishing Judiciary, divided opposition, a tamed chunk of media and ‘satisfied’ military establishment. In the obtaining internal environment and masses which remain prone to manipulation, we are likely to have a PPP led coalition government with Zardari as our President in the next term also. For how long this country can sustain such a dispensation, is anybody’s guess.

For my prediction to be proven wrong, the opposition must end its infighting and get united, Judiciary must be seen as delivering prompt justice, the media must break the shackles and regain its true independence for unbiased coverage and the masses must make a commitment not to sell cheaply and get exploited in the future. Can all this be achieved? I very much doubt.

Agenda behind the ‘contempt’ and ‘dual nationality’ bills (my article published in The News on 11 July 2012)

Independent Judiciary is the essence of democracy and the Constitution is very clear about certain restrictions on the Pakistani citizens having ‘dual nationality’, and for good reasons. Why, then, the government is bent upon undermining the Judiciary by introducing the contempt bill and seeking amendment in the relevant article to permit holding of public offices by the ‘dual nationality’ holders? To get an answer, we need to understand the bigger picture. 

In my article titled, ‘colonization of a new kind’, Published in The NEWS on 4^th January 2012, I had tried to throw light on USA’s strategy to convert Pakistan into a ‘pliant’ state, an imperative for fulfilment of their ‘grand design’ in the region. To pursue this objective the strategy being adopted is to control Pakistan by controlling its leadership, through implementation of a well thought-out plan, whereby;  (1) Pakistani politicians willing to support the US agenda in the region would be ‘assisted’ to reach the corridors of power (2) Ingress would be made in major institutions by cultivating ‘local assets’, thereby, establishing a network to ‘elevate and protect’ those who comply and ‘marginalize’ those not falling in line (3) Alternate leadership would be prepared to ensure friendly change, if situation so demanded (4) Rampant corruption, economic dependence on USA and negative internal dynamics of Pakistan would serve as tools to support the strategy.

NRO was thus brokered by USA to pave the way for return and ascent to power of ‘leaders’, willing to dance to their tune. Having placed at the required positions, they were to achieve total control over institutions that may hinder pursuance of long-term US objectives. The major institutions to be tamed included the Parliament, military establishment and the Judiciary.

Thus, in pursuance of this agenda, the Parliament has been successfully converted into a ‘rubber-stamp body’ through enactment of 18^th Amendment, whereby, a party head has become so strong that he can even unseat a sitting PM of his party and if he is also the President, enjoying immunity, as is the case these days, the system can be termed anything but democracy. Unfortunately, the main opposition party also became a party to this undemocratic clause while pursuing their own selfish agendas. Now, the USA by just controlling 4-5 party-heads, can control the entire policy-making of Pakistan. One can imagine the consequences if these leaders also choose to become US citizens after passage of proposed bill on ‘dual nationality’.

After achieving control over the parliament, the guns were directed towards the military establishment to undermine the institution, to gain control over them and curtail their ability to breed ‘strategic defiance’ to the USA’s ‘grand design’ in the region. While the dilution of Army’s status as a centre of gravity is a good omen in a democratic dispensation, the conspiracy to undermine this institution would prove to be extremely detrimental for the country as the Army is, and must remain, relevant to Pakistan’s security. By securing dual nationality, the perpetrators conspiring against the military establishment would be able to pursue their agenda with greater freedom of action.

With the parliament marginalized and military establishment taking the back seat, the US backed Pakistani leadership hoped to get a free hand to pursue the given agenda but for pro-active judiciary which has emerged as a major irritant for the ruling elite, and  its patrons. Hence, the ‘contempt’ and ‘dual-nationality’ bills, which are aimed at becoming all powerful ‘untouchables’ so that the given foreign agenda could be pursued with impunity.

While it is expected that the Judiciary would thwart any attempt to undermine its independence, the ‘dual nationality’ bill, if passed, would have serious implications for Pakistan. Already, under the garb of constructing new embassy at Islamabad close to the Presidency and PM’s Secretariat and a consulate at Karachi, the US is in the process of developing bases in Pakistan. With the enactment of the proposed bill, we would probably one day have ruling elite with US passports, virtually running the country from the US base at Islamabad and taking decisions under US dictation, which may not be in our national interest   – colonization of a new kind.

As such, in my view, all those parliamentarians who support the ‘dual nationality’ bill would be responsible for placing the country under a de-facto foreign rule.  

Bounty on Hafiz Saeed (My article published in THE NEWS on 6th April 2012)

Normally head-money is placed on criminals / terrorists in the hiding. As such, USA has created history and given indications for the things to come, by putting head-money on Hafiz Saeed who is a free Pakistani citizen, is now trying to enter the mainstream politics and when militancy in IHK, of which India has always accused him, has slowed down. It was, thus, natural if the news came as a shocker for the entire Pakistani nation and being construed, by and large, as yet another act of unilateralism by the only super power. Why at a stage when Pak-US relations are under turbulence and the Parliament is discussing contours of future Pak-US relations, would USA take such an action and to serve what purpose, will remain a question under discussion for a few days. To understand, we need to be clear about US objectives for the 21^st century - Pursuance of US interests, interests of the allies and interests of the partners – in the same sequence. The others, in which apparently Pakistan also falls, matter less and expected to facilitate.

The Pakistani leadership assigned with the formulation of foreign policy, especially relations with USA, must understand that the latter has a well defined agenda to pursue in the region, any hindrance in that pursuit would not be tolerated and taken as a hostile act. In this regard, opening of supply routes is critically important and, as such, the announcement to put bounty on Hafiz Saeed at this stage is to give a clear-cut message to the Pakistan Government to comply, as well as, to intimidate the groups threatening its forceful closure, even if the Government permits it.

Secondly, by announcing the decision at India, the Americans have conveyed that, irrespective of the role Pakistan plays for USA, India gets pre-eminence in relations. In fact, the decision was meant to and has pleased India.

Thirdly, Difa-e-Pakistan’s rallies, of which Hafiz Saeed is one of the active members, is emerging as a small but violent force which could threaten USA’s interests in the region. Since, this out-fit is perceived to be supported by the establishment and the organization which Hafiz Saeed heads, is considered by the Americans and Indians as ISI’s proxy, we may not even rule out connivance of Pakistan Government in the decision. In a country where there is trust deficit between the institutions, anything of the sort is possible. Logically also, the kind of close relations our Government thinks it has with the US Administration, the latter should have consulted them before taking decision on Hafiz Saeed. If they have not, as the Government’s stance is, the act gives a clear indication of where the US policy makers place Pakistan in their scheme of things.

Whatever the motivation behind the decision, it is clear that USA is in no mood to play games with Pakistan, means business and would go to any extent to achieve what it wants. The Government, as the indicators are, understands it well and willing to comply, but there are parties who feel that the USA is cornered, desperately needs Pakistan’s assistance for pursuance of her objectives in the region and that we could play around with them for a while to extract maximum in return. Probably, the message is meant for the latter category.

Though, in my view, at this stage the decision is symbolic but we may not rule out the possibility of USA taking this matter to UN to put pressure on Pakistan, in case she is found non-cooperating. While the Government is not likely to give any forceful reaction and may even signal tacit approval, any retaliation by Hafiz Saeed’s followers would surely be against Pakistan’s interest and further tarnish her image. The best course for Hafiz Saeed would be to understand the obtaining international environment, get into the mainstream and take part in country’s political activities, including elections.

The Pakistan Government must understand that the noose is being tightened around Pakistan’s neck and to break loose, it must take decisions, and soon, which enhance its relevance in the international community and not those which push Pakistan further towards isolation. While we must play our cards well, we must also know the limits beyond which our brinkmanship may fail, especially if we try to base it on some negative potential. The need of the hour is to put own house in order so as to face external challenges up-front – the only option left for Pakistan.

The deadly political impasse (My article published in The NEWS on 17th January 2012 )

Today, Pakistan faces a deadly political impasse with grave ramifications. The players include the government, opposition, judiciary, the Armed Forces, media, the masses and finally the foreign hand. To understand the nature of imbroglio and solution thereof, we need to be clear where each stakeholder stands today, what it is striving for and what must be done to sail through.

Starting with PPP led coalition government, which includes PPP, ANP, PML (Q) and MQM; The PPP, though enjoys strong support from USA because of the services rendered, has failed on the domestic front in every sphere of governance, involvement in corruption, destroying institutions, perpetual defiance to judiciary, stand-off with the Army, a recent development, and bringing the country to the brink of economic disaster, and, as such, has nothing to go to the masses and now vying to become political martyrs for gaining sympathy vote. And since martyrdom is not in sight, their frustration is growing with each passing day. Their only option is to take advantage of the little time they are left with, coupled with the short memory of the masses, and at least try to give a semblance of governance, besides curbing the tendency to deal politically the judicial matters confronted by the leadership. ANP, if ‘Railways’ is any gauge of their performance, has no option but to go along with PPP. PML (Q), in either case is facing extinction, and as such, should merge with either PPP or PML (N), using its well known art of ‘dealings’. In my reckoning they would be better of aligning with their parent party, if nothing else, for this country’s sake. The MQM, however, faces a dilemma - the day PPP is strong enough, MQM will be the likely target and, I am sure, their leadership knows it. As such, their survival is to stand on high moral grounds and must delink themselves from Government’s misdeeds.

The second stakeholder is the opposition; which is symbolized by Nawaz Sharif who, besides being a man of less than average intelligence, is suffering from a kind of ‘military takeover phobia’. These weaknesses have been successfully exploited by President Zardari and he, till recently, played the role of a friendly opposition. Still undecided, the opposition needs to get its act together. It’s now or never situation and time for redemption. En-masse resignations from the assemblies may save the day for them and for the country.   

The third stakeholder, Judiciary; though it has given some landmark decisions, yet the apex court is gradually losing moral ascendency and faith in the ‘revamped’ judiciary is dwindling because of, firstly, its inability to rein-in those bent upon maligning its image and, secondly, inability to get its decisions implemented on some important cases, for fear of political fall-out. Even the six options given in the NRO implementation case are a manifestation of expediency, as the infamous ‘law of necessity’. They have little time left to assert. 

The Armed Forces; This institution, till a few years back, could be ascribed as the center of gravity of this country - the status undergoing dilution with each passing day. The nation at large, which has invested and continues to invest in the Armed Forces, has great expectations from this institution. As such, despite successful operations in Swat and South Wazirstan, the masses were jolted by the intelligence, operational and security related failures as manifested in terrorist attacks on GHQ, Parade Lane, Mehran Base and, most significant, the 2nd May incident, having serious ramifications for the country. Besides, as the ensuing developments indicate, the strategy supposedly being followed by the military vis-à-vis USA has back fired and the Armed Forces have failed (at least in perception) in what the media calls ‘performance audit’. Sensing an opportunity, the ruling elite, with support of USA against some commitments, is trying to undermine the Army as an institution and, thus, a stand-off. The military leadership must continue to display restraint against ongoing provocations, perform on ground to thwart threats to Pakistan’s security, their primary responsibility, and concentrate on their professional pursuits – their only option to emerge victorious from the impasse. 

The fifth stake holder, the media; Till recently, the media played a very constructive role in highlighting the shortfalls in governance and institutional failures and acted as an independent and impartial monitoring body. However, the power it has started to generate for affecting changes, has also made it vulnerable to ‘enticements and coercion’, resulting into affiliations and lack of objectivity, though still not very pronounced. To those who have certain ‘motivation’ for taking sides, I would only request that they must shun pursuit of personal gains and play an impartial role as the stakes are too high – on media the future course of this country depends. 

Sixth stake holder, the masses; though in democracies, the people are masters of their destiny, in Pakistan, they have abdicated this privilege by remaining indifferent, and, as such, do not matter in the scheme of things. They must begin to assert and strive to break the shackles of subservience, or they would remain condemned to oblivion, as hither to.

Finally, the foreign hand, USA; for achievement of their long term objectives in the region, it is imperative that Pakistan must be ruled by a pliant leadership which must remain subservient to their demands. Contrary to previous practice of relying on military dictators, this time, they are betting on the civilian political leadership for the purpose and would go all out to protect the interests of their ‘assets’. However, since their strategy vis-à-vis Pakistan hinges on a ‘sold out’ leadership, it would mean more extremism and would ultimately be counter-productive. They must play a positive role in strengthening democracy to ensure a stable Pakistan, which is in everybody’s interest.