Is there a method to ongoing madness?

Commenting on the show cause notice issued to the incumbent PM in NRO case, a prominent lawyer and human rights activist termed the decision “the beginning of an end to the democratic process”. While she has a right to her opinion, in my view, there is absolutely no threat to democracy through an unconstitutional act by the military establishment but, surely, the federation is threatened by inaptness, self-serving and ego-centric approach of the political elite, perceived lack of neutrality on the part of Judiciary and rising extremism and disillusionment among the masses. Are the stake holders oblivious of the consequences of the prevailing madness or there is a method behind it, is a question agitating each Pakistani’s mind.

To start with the ruling elite; having failed in every sphere of governance, destroying institutions and bringing the country to the brink of economic disaster, they surely need ‘excuses and reasons’ for their failures, besides pursuing political martyrdom before the next elections. Stand-off with Judiciary is serving both these purposes. As such, there is a method behind the on-going tussle with the Judiciary, though self-serving at the peril of the masses as the PPP leadership knows that writing the letter to the Swiss authorities would be of no consequence and they may ultimately oblige before instalment of interim government.

To the contrary, Judiciary has allowed it-self to be entrapped by the PPP leadership. With each passing day, it is losing grounds against the PPP’s onslaught through effective use of media. Lack of will on the part of Judiciary to take on the PPP stalwarts who are blatantly portraying the CJ of being biased against their party has started to take its toll. People at large are loudly whispering as to why contempt proceedings have been initiated against Malik Riaz but not against many others who are overtly involved in contempt of the CJ.  Arsalan Iftikhar’s case, and it’s mishandling, has further tarnished Judiciary’s image which, despite apparent aggressive posturing, is now clearly playing on the back foot.

Frustrated and disillusioned by PPP’s miss-governance, it was natural for the nation to pin high hopes in PTI and PML (N) for providing alternate leadership. Their hopes, however, have been dashed because of the on-going tussle between the two parties. It’s a shame to watch on TV the top leaders of both these parties levelling allegations and counter-allegations against each other, presenting spectre of self-serving pygmies. Both Imran Khan and NS know that ‘a divided opposition is a dead opposition’, yet they are continuing to fight against each other and one finds no method in their madness.

No doubt, in the last few years, media has emerged as a major power centre to reckon with. However, its pre-eminence has also become a vulnerability exposing it to powerful predators vying to tame and fix the upright. Resultantly, the recent infighting, graft charges and lack of objectivity on the part of certain anchors is beginning to damage media’s credibility and lending it prone to manipulation - a bad omen for the nation.

One fails to understand the method, or lack of it, behind the madness of the masses in general. They would curse and abuse a particular leader for five years but vote for him in return for a trivial gain or due to family compulsion. This phenomenon is exploited by the inapt politicians who fail to deliver after reaching the corridors of power, yet are confident to be re-elected. Zardari’s recent pronouncement that he would form the next governments in all the provinces is a manifestation of this mind-set – the people willingly lent themselves to be taken for a ride.    

And finally the military establishment whose image reached its lowest ebb in the aftermath of 2^nd May 2011 incident. Since then, the khakis’ leadership has played its cards well by reacting strongly to NATO’s attack on Salala Post, making a point where required and displaying flexibility on comparative non-issues. Resultantly, the military establishment has regained relevance, both internally and vis-a-vis USA, which is once again inclined to deal directly with its leadership. Zardari, politically smart as he is, has been more than obliging in this regard.

As for the USA, period up to year 2014 is extremely important due to planned withdrawal of their forces from Afghanistan and its implications thereof. They would surely prefer the present dispensation to continue, with or without elections, as amongst our top political leadership, Zardari has the ‘political acumen and sagacity’ to ‘understand’ their ‘requirements’ and oblige.

Thus, irrespective of the damage the ongoing ‘madness’ is causing to the federation, Zardari is gaining ascendency each passing day as his ‘methods’ are beginning to yield results in the shape of diminishing Judiciary, divided opposition, a tamed chunk of media and ‘satisfied’ military establishment. In the obtaining internal environment and masses which remain prone to manipulation, we are likely to have a PPP led coalition government with Zardari as our President in the next term also. For how long this country can sustain such a dispensation, is anybody’s guess.

For my prediction to be proven wrong, the opposition must end its infighting and get united, Judiciary must be seen as delivering prompt justice, the media must break the shackles and regain its true independence for unbiased coverage and the masses must make a commitment not to sell cheaply and get exploited in the future. Can all this be achieved? I very much doubt.

Pakistan’s future: we must learn to live with Zardari for long (My article published in the NEWS on 10 March 2012)

For predicting the future political landscape of Pakistan, it is imperative that we have a clear understanding of our national psyche developed over centuries and where we stand today with respect to the major players who are likely to shape Pakistan’s political future, at least in the near term.

To understand as to why we are what we are, we need to trace the history of our region which reveals that through centuries, warriors from the North (Afghanistan / Central Asia) invaded the fertile lands of Punjab and further south, ruled the area by brute force and used influential locals (sell offs) for collecting tax on their behalf, in return for some privileges and status. The locals, instead of defending their motherland, always succumbed and a number of young men normally joined the invading forces as low rank soldiers to share the booty. The remaining masses in general learned to live under subjugation, seeking survival by all means, right or wrong. The British adopted the same strategy, ruled for a century by using / controlling through enticements the same two segments of this region – influential who became feudal lords and the uniformed lot. These became distinct ‘elite classes’ for serving the British and for the remaining, subservience became the norm.

After creation of Pakistan nothing changed with the exception that a tussle started for ascendency between the same two ‘elite classes’, i.e predominantly feudal based political leadership and the uniformed establishment, in which, barring few intermittent periods, the latter mostly prevailed due to division amongst political leadership and their failure to deliver whenever in power, successful conversion of Pakistan into a security state by the establishment ensuring their relevance, indifference of the masses and, most importantly, support by the US Administration who felt comfortable to deal with one man at the top. (This has remained USA’s practice, especially in countries where strong anti-US feelings exist, little realizing that such sentiments emanate because of this very approach).

Paradigm shift in the political landscape of Pakistan started to manifest in the last 6-7 years with the reversal of most of the above factors. It started with the US Administration’s decision to invest in the political leadership, albeit a pliant one, rather than Musharraf, who, in their view, had started double-dealing with them. Benazir played a major role in bringing about this change of thought as she, while in exile, was able to convince the US Administration that they were betting on the wrong horse. She was able to successfully convince the Americans that she had the popularity at grass- root level, could mould public opinion in USA’s favour, she was capable of controlling extremism and willing to play USA’s game in the region. Convinced, the US Administration, acceded and Musharraf was accordingly ‘convinced’ for her return to Pakistan. The other fundamental change came from within, whereby, an understanding developed between Benazir and Nawaz Sharif that they would not let themselves to be used by the establishment against each other, rule by consensus amongst themselves and let their children, and their children reap the fruits. Benazir was unfortunately assassinated and succeeded by her spouse, Zardari. With USA’s support waning, Musharraf’s fall was a matter of time, bringing down with him the entire edifice of establishment’s ascendency.

Zardari, being a very shrewd politician and bestowed with many hidden qualities, both positive and negative, successfully formed the PPP led government, he himself became the President and since then has successfully overcome many challenges by adopting a simple strategy; for those who matter, “support me and get whatever you want” and for the Americans, “support me, empower me and get results”.

Today, one can safely assume that Zardari is very close to the US Administration, has out-smarted all politicians, neutralized the establishment, diluted judiciary’s power base and has been able to woo some of those, including media-persons and journalists, who could act as spoilers in his pursuit for maintaining ascendency. He knows how to win-over willing and unwilling partners and has accumulated enough resources to buy loyalties. The only thing lacking is his ability to deliver to the masses and ensure good governance, but then in our beloved country this has never been the criterion. (Those who do not agree may go through the results of recently held by-elections). 

Nawaz Sharif, the 2nd major player in the political arena, simply stating, lacks the abilities and political acumen to counter Zardari who has already taken the former for a ride, not once but many a times. Nawaz Sharif’s anti-establishment phobia and unwillingness to forgive those who sided with Musharraf have been successfully exploited by his main rival. Living with self-conceived euphoria that owing to his so-called principled politics he would clinch the top slot in the next elections, Nawaz Sharif fails to comprehend that, as the indicators are, he is already confined to Punjab.

Thus, with the establishment cornered, judiciary gradually losing relevance because of inability to assert in important cases, media with loop-holes to be exploited, Nawaz Sharif in a state of war with everybody, including his own self, and living in illusions, as well as delusions, ANP as willing and MQM as unwilling partners, PML (Q) in the bag, Imran Khan lacking the understanding of Pakistan’s real politics, un-flinging USA’s support and, above all, subservient or indifferent masses, PPP is likely to head the next coalition government also and we must learn to live with Zardari as our President for a long haul. Of course, under him Pakistan will neither remain a security state nor become a welfare state but will be converted into pliant state, a status we are doomed to be condemned being a bunch of people who stay indifferent during elections, sell cheaply, consider corruption as a non-issue, for whom self-elevation by all means, right or wrong, remains the norm and who willingly allow themselves to be exploited. We deserve Zardari.

The deadly political impasse (My article published in The NEWS on 17th January 2012 )

Today, Pakistan faces a deadly political impasse with grave ramifications. The players include the government, opposition, judiciary, the Armed Forces, media, the masses and finally the foreign hand. To understand the nature of imbroglio and solution thereof, we need to be clear where each stakeholder stands today, what it is striving for and what must be done to sail through.

Starting with PPP led coalition government, which includes PPP, ANP, PML (Q) and MQM; The PPP, though enjoys strong support from USA because of the services rendered, has failed on the domestic front in every sphere of governance, involvement in corruption, destroying institutions, perpetual defiance to judiciary, stand-off with the Army, a recent development, and bringing the country to the brink of economic disaster, and, as such, has nothing to go to the masses and now vying to become political martyrs for gaining sympathy vote. And since martyrdom is not in sight, their frustration is growing with each passing day. Their only option is to take advantage of the little time they are left with, coupled with the short memory of the masses, and at least try to give a semblance of governance, besides curbing the tendency to deal politically the judicial matters confronted by the leadership. ANP, if ‘Railways’ is any gauge of their performance, has no option but to go along with PPP. PML (Q), in either case is facing extinction, and as such, should merge with either PPP or PML (N), using its well known art of ‘dealings’. In my reckoning they would be better of aligning with their parent party, if nothing else, for this country’s sake. The MQM, however, faces a dilemma - the day PPP is strong enough, MQM will be the likely target and, I am sure, their leadership knows it. As such, their survival is to stand on high moral grounds and must delink themselves from Government’s misdeeds.

The second stakeholder is the opposition; which is symbolized by Nawaz Sharif who, besides being a man of less than average intelligence, is suffering from a kind of ‘military takeover phobia’. These weaknesses have been successfully exploited by President Zardari and he, till recently, played the role of a friendly opposition. Still undecided, the opposition needs to get its act together. It’s now or never situation and time for redemption. En-masse resignations from the assemblies may save the day for them and for the country.   

The third stakeholder, Judiciary; though it has given some landmark decisions, yet the apex court is gradually losing moral ascendency and faith in the ‘revamped’ judiciary is dwindling because of, firstly, its inability to rein-in those bent upon maligning its image and, secondly, inability to get its decisions implemented on some important cases, for fear of political fall-out. Even the six options given in the NRO implementation case are a manifestation of expediency, as the infamous ‘law of necessity’. They have little time left to assert. 

The Armed Forces; This institution, till a few years back, could be ascribed as the center of gravity of this country - the status undergoing dilution with each passing day. The nation at large, which has invested and continues to invest in the Armed Forces, has great expectations from this institution. As such, despite successful operations in Swat and South Wazirstan, the masses were jolted by the intelligence, operational and security related failures as manifested in terrorist attacks on GHQ, Parade Lane, Mehran Base and, most significant, the 2nd May incident, having serious ramifications for the country. Besides, as the ensuing developments indicate, the strategy supposedly being followed by the military vis-à-vis USA has back fired and the Armed Forces have failed (at least in perception) in what the media calls ‘performance audit’. Sensing an opportunity, the ruling elite, with support of USA against some commitments, is trying to undermine the Army as an institution and, thus, a stand-off. The military leadership must continue to display restraint against ongoing provocations, perform on ground to thwart threats to Pakistan’s security, their primary responsibility, and concentrate on their professional pursuits – their only option to emerge victorious from the impasse. 

The fifth stake holder, the media; Till recently, the media played a very constructive role in highlighting the shortfalls in governance and institutional failures and acted as an independent and impartial monitoring body. However, the power it has started to generate for affecting changes, has also made it vulnerable to ‘enticements and coercion’, resulting into affiliations and lack of objectivity, though still not very pronounced. To those who have certain ‘motivation’ for taking sides, I would only request that they must shun pursuit of personal gains and play an impartial role as the stakes are too high – on media the future course of this country depends. 

Sixth stake holder, the masses; though in democracies, the people are masters of their destiny, in Pakistan, they have abdicated this privilege by remaining indifferent, and, as such, do not matter in the scheme of things. They must begin to assert and strive to break the shackles of subservience, or they would remain condemned to oblivion, as hither to.

Finally, the foreign hand, USA; for achievement of their long term objectives in the region, it is imperative that Pakistan must be ruled by a pliant leadership which must remain subservient to their demands. Contrary to previous practice of relying on military dictators, this time, they are betting on the civilian political leadership for the purpose and would go all out to protect the interests of their ‘assets’. However, since their strategy vis-à-vis Pakistan hinges on a ‘sold out’ leadership, it would mean more extremism and would ultimately be counter-productive. They must play a positive role in strengthening democracy to ensure a stable Pakistan, which is in everybody’s interest.