Sell-off (My article published in THE NEWS on 1 Feb 2012)

With the refusal of Mansoor Ijaz to come to Pakistan for reasons known to the entire nation, the Government camp is sensing victory and, has already commenced celebrations. ‘Loyal’ journalists and anchorpersons are branding their colleagues, still fighting for the peoples’ right to know the truth about memogate, as ‘idiots’. Ayaz Amir’s article titled ‘Clowns and red faces: comedy Pakistan style’ (THE NEWS dated 27 January 2012) is a manifestation of this mindset (to me, however, such articles present spectre of a sell-off Pakistani style). To find an answer to the apparent drop scene to the ‘memogate scandal’, irrespective of it being a reality, we need to understand the role, capacity and undertakings of each player to influence events.      

The USA; The Americans have learnt the hard way that honeymoon with Pakistan Army has always proven short-lived due to wide divergence of interests and, therefore, as a strategy they are now providing all out support to the civilian dispensation, albeit a pliant one. In its editorial of 26th January 2012, The Washington Post states, “what the past two years have demonstrated — again — is that an enduring partnership between Pakistan and the United States will be possible only if moderate civilians establish control over the military”. The editorial ends with the remarks “But the administration (US) should be hoping that Mr. Haqqani’s side wins — or at least survives”. The editorial is a clear reflection on the American stance about memogate. That be the case, would they let an American citizen of Pakistani origin to destabilize a ‘friendly’ government and, hence, his intimidation by CIA, resulting into the drop scene?  Here, one should not even rule out the possibility of CIA using Mansoor Ijaz in a sting operation to trap Haqqani, or even Zardari, into agreeing on preparation of a ‘memo’ containing ‘offers’ inimical to Pakistan’s sovereignty so as to blackmail the Pakistan Government at an opportune time into making certain ‘commitments’. In such an eventuality, the drop scene would imply that the government has acceded to US demands - a very dangerous proposition, warranting in-depth investigations into the matter. 

The Government; After the 18th Amendment, a party head has become so strong that he can even unseat a sitting PM of his party and if he is also the President, enjoying immunity, as is the case these days in Pakistan, the system can be termed anything but democracy. In the present dispensation, Pakistan, in my view, is gradually becoming a dynastical monarchy with only one difference – in older days the monarchs used brute force to overcome opposition, our President uses his ‘charm and skills’ to buy off the opposition. No matter how damaging this dispensation is for the Pakistani nation, it suits the Americans as they have to ‘deal’ with one man, the pattern they follow in most of the Middle-Eastern countries, and hence their all out support. Moreover, the power that now rests with our President cum party head, anybody who dares to get on his left side may face retribution and those on the right side would surely be rewarded, as in the olden days by the monarchs. No wonder, Mr Nawaz Sharif has disappeared in the oblivion after taking the memogate to the SC.

The military establishment; General Musharraf’s failure to deliver, blunders at the fag-end of his tenure, emergence of other power-centres, performance related issues and other weaknesses have adversely affected military establishment’s ability to influence events and,  since relevance and ability are inter-related, the military establishment is losing relevance, at home, as well as, amongst international players. Besides, a deliberate attempt is being made by the US Administration to undermine Pakistan’s military establishment because of its stance on relations with India and future dispensation in Afghanistan so that they could directly deal with the Pakistan Government. Memogate has been effectively used by the vested parties, using media as an instrument, to tarnish Army’s image, forcing it to take the backseat on the issue.

The Judiciary; To quote the same Washington Post editorial mentioned above, “Besides the military and Mr. Zardari’s government, the third party to the dispute is the court, which seems to have embraced the generals’ cause of ousting the civilian government. Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry has had outsize political ambitions ever since he helped depose former president Pervez Musharraf. The good news in this complex struggle is that the case against Mr. Haqqani appears to be crumbling — as it should be — for lack of evidence. Mr. Gilani has pushed back the military by firing the defence secretary. And Mr. Chaudhry’s overweening actions have divided a legal community that once supported him overwhelmingly”. These few sentences actually represent what the USA Administration feels about Pakistan’s government, military and judiciary. While love for the government and animosity with military are understandable, why treat our judiciary with contempt unless motivated by self-interest? Notwithstanding what USA’s stance is about our judiciary, as a matter of fact it is gradually losing relevance because of ‘reluctance’ to get some of its decisions on important cases implemented.

And finally the media, both electronic and print; It is unfortunate, but barring a very few, most of the journalists and anchorpersons, whether because of their perceived support for democracy, or other motivations, continue to demonstrate complicity with USA and the government on memogate issue. Instead of striving for truth, the ‘loyal’ anchorpersons and journalists have been vehemently trying to prove themselves ‘more loyal than the king’, thus seriously undermining the investigations.

No matter what the outcome of memogate investigations, I am sure, the event will be quoted in the history as a tale of sell-offs, compromises and betrayal, with each stake-holder accruing benefits, or protecting self-interests, as per its capacity to influence things.

Colonization of a new kind (My article published in the NEWS on 4th January 2012)

Pakistan’s geo-strategic location as gate-way to Central Asia and its emergence as a nuclear armed ‘Islamic state’, have made it extremely vulnerable to power games of many countries with the USA as the major player.  Though apparently they attacked Afghanistan to topple the Taliban Government and bring perpetrators of 9/11 to justice, in my view, they, in any case, would have attacked Afghanistan on one pretext or another to gain and maintain foot-hold in Central Asia, which is considered imperative for implementation of their ‘containment of China’ strategy. And, since, the USA sees India as a strategic partner in their ‘Grand Design’ for the region, by implication Pakistan must be brought to a level of a pliant state and de-fanged as a nuclear irritant to India.

To achieve the above mentioned objectives vis-à-vis Pakistan, the USA Administration could exercise three options – (1) The ‘military option’ (2) ‘Erstwhile USSR model’, whereby, USSR was internally destabilized, made economically unviable and then a deal was struck for dismantling of its nuclear warheads deployed outside the Russian Federation (3) The ‘indirect control model’ i.e controlling a country by controlling its leadership.

The military option could have grave ramifications and, as such, discarded by US policy makers, unless absolutely warranted. Former US President Bush, under the influence of anti-Pakistan lobbies, tried to implement the ‘Erstwhile USSR model’ in Pakistan, wherein, CIA-RAW Nexus found commonality of interests with a group of Taliban to breed instability. Pakistan responded by double-dealing with them and as it became clear by end 2006 that the strategy was bound to failure, the US policy makers decided to exercise the third option, ‘to achieve control on Pakistan by controlling Pakistan’s leadership, through incentives and coercion’. This strategy is not only followed in most of the Middle Eastern countries but the past history of most of the areas that now comprise Pakistan also lent credence to the adopted strategy which reveals that through centuries, invaders from the North (Afghanistan / Central Asia) and the British ruled the area in connivance with influential locals, who in return for certain ‘incentives’ owed allegiance to these foreign rulers. The masses also generally displayed subservience to these so-called ruling elites, ‘imposed’ on them by ‘outsiders’.

Though USA Administrations had always felt comfortable to deal with military dictators, yet historically, they, at a certain stage tended to show defiance. As such, when in 2006 Musharraf was found reluctant to dance to their tune, it was principally decided to invest in the political leadership. Benazir, while in exile, played a major role in reinforcing this thought process. The strategy by USA vis-à-vis Pakistan, thus, envisaged; (1) Pakistani leaders willing to support the US agenda in the region would be ‘assisted’ to reach the corridors of power (2)  Ingress in the major institutions would be achieved by cultivating ‘local assets’, thereby, establishing a network to ‘elevate and protect’ those who comply and ‘marginalize’ those not falling in line (3) Preferably, with passage of time, alternate leadership would be prepared to ensure friendly change, if situation so demands (4)  Rampant corruption, economic dependence on USA and negative internal dynamics of Pakistan would serve as tools to support the strategy.

Musharraf was, thus, ‘persuaded’ to enter into a deal with Benazir, NRO was promulgated, Benazir returned, changed her stance being a true leader, became a victim in a suicide attack and Zardari provided the required replacement.      

While NRO brokered by the USA had paved the way for return and assent to power of ‘local assets’ willing to play their game, what could be expected of them in return; firstly, to support the USA’s ‘Grand Design’ in the region as mentioned above and, secondly, create internal environment for successful application of USA’s strategy of converting Pakistan into a pliant state in the long term. In my view, following undertakings by the ‘assets’, implanted through NRO or already emplaced, would ensure  achievement of these objectives; (1) Crippling of Pakistan’s economy to a level, whereby, it remains dependent on USA (2) Sabotage of Pakistan’s nuclear program through indirect methods (3) Undermining of the Army’s status as a center of gravity, establishing control over them, and curtailing their ability to breed ‘Strategic Defiance’ to the USA’s ‘Grand Design’ in the region (4) Assisting in ingress of CIA ‘assets’ in major institutions to support the ‘implanted’ leadership. (Imprints of this ‘ingress’ are already visible if one critically observes recent happenings e.g in the memogate scandal, a ‘rescue apparatus’ has been immediately energized and set into motion to protect those looking after US interests) (5) Accepting India’s pre-eminence and undertaking measures to ensure that the Pakistani nation reconciles with the idea (6) Supporting USA’s war effort in the region.      

Though these ‘assets’ have managed to deliver to their ‘sponsors’ on different fronts, yet it failed to achieve any progress with regard to ‘control’ over the Armed Forces. 2 May 2011, provided a unique opportunity to the ruling elite to gain ‘control’ over the Army as its image hit the rock bottom. They could even have acted against the Army leadership by virtue of the authority vested in them by the constitution but lacked the courage to do so without guaranteed US support and, hence, the memo was initiated, which is a reality beyond doubt. Though the Government’s desire to achieve ‘control’ over the military establishment is a legitimate one, yet seeking help of a foreign power for the purpose and, most importantly, the offers made, thereof, in return are serious issues impinging on our sovereignty. 

From the above perspective, the memogate investigations assume greater importance as the outcome would ultimately set direction for the nation. If the justice prevails, the nation may hope to break the shackles of slavery being woven around it and in case the CIA’s fully emplaced ‘rescue apparatus’ is able to save the perpetrators of ‘memogate’, the nation would be destined to enslavement as in the past, this time to be controlled directly or indirectly by the USA, through their implanted ‘assets’ – colonization of a new kind.